research topics on global trade

Trade and Globalization

How did international trade and globalization change over time? What is the structure today? And what is its impact?

By: Esteban Ortiz-Ospina , Diana Beltekian and Max Roser

This page was first published in 2014 and last revised in April 2024.

On this topic page, you can find data, visualizations, and research on historical and current patterns of international trade, as well as discussions of their origins and effects.

Other research and writing on trade and globalization on Our World in Data:

• Is globalization an engine of economic development?
• Is trade a major driver of income inequality?

Related topics

Economic Growth

See all our data, visualizations, and writing on economic growth.

Economic Inequality

See all our data, visualizations, and writing on economic inequality.

See all our data, visualizations, and writing on migration.

See all interactive charts on Trade and Globalization ↓

Trade has changed the world economy

Trade has grown remarkably over the last century.

One of the most important developments of the last century has been the integration of national economies into a global economic system. This process of integration, often called globalization, has resulted in a remarkable growth in trade between countries.

The chart here shows the growth of world exports over more than the last two centuries. These estimates are in constant prices (i.e. have been adjusted to account for inflation) and are indexed at 1913 values.

The chart shows an extraordinary growth in international trade over the last couple of centuries: Exports today are more than 40 times larger than in 1913.

You can switch to a logarithmic scale under ‘Settings’. This will help you see that, over the long run, growth has roughly followed an exponential path.

The increase in trade has even outpaced economic growth

The chart above shows how much more trade we have today relative to a century ago. But what about trade relative to total economic output?

Over the last couple of centuries the world economy has experienced sustained positive economic growth , so looking at changes in trade relative to GDP offers another interesting perspective.

The next chart plots the value of traded goods relative to GDP (i.e. the value of merchandise trade as a share of global economic output).

Up to 1870, the sum of worldwide exports accounted for less than 10% of global output. Today, the value of exported goods around the world is around 25%. This shows that over the last hundred years, the growth in trade has even outpaced rapid economic growth.

Trade expanded in two waves

The first "wave of globalization" started in the 19th century, the second one after ww2.

The following visualization presents a compilation of available trade estimates, showing the evolution of world exports and imports as a share of global economic output .

This metric (the ratio of total trade, exports plus imports, to global GDP) is known as the “openness index”. The higher the index, the higher the influence of trade transactions on global economic activity. 1

As we can see, until 1800 there was a long period characterized by persistently low international trade – globally the index never exceeded 10% before 1800. This then changed over the course of the 19th century, when technological advances triggered a period of marked growth in world trade – the so-called “first wave of globalization”.

This first wave came to an end with the beginning of World War I, when the decline of liberalism and the rise of nationalism led to a slump in international trade. In the chart we see a large drop in the interwar period.

After World War II trade started growing again. This new – and ongoing – wave of globalization has seen international trade grow faster than ever before. Today the sum of exports and imports across nations amounts to more than 50% of the value of total global output.

Before the first wave of globalization, trade was driven mostly by colonialism

Over the early modern period, transoceanic flows of goods between empires and colonies accounted for an important part of international trade. The following visualizations provide a comparison of intercontinental trade, in per capita terms, for different countries.

As we can see, intercontinental trade was very dynamic, with volumes varying considerably across time and from empire to empire.

Leonor Freire Costa, Nuno Palma, and Jaime Reis, who compiled and published the original data shown here, argue that trade, also in this period, had a substantial positive impact on the economy. 2

The first wave of globalization was marked by the rise and collapse of intra-European trade

The following visualization shows a detailed overview of Western European exports by destination. Figures correspond to export-to-GDP ratios (i.e. the sum of the value of exports from all Western European countries, divided by the total GDP in this region). You can use “Settings” to switch to a relative view and see the proportional contribution of each region to total Western European exports.

This chart shows that growth in Western European trade throughout the 19th century was largely driven by trade within the region: In the period 1830-1900 intra-European exports went from 1% of GDP to 10% of GDP, and this meant that the relative weight of intra-European exports doubled over the period. However, this process of European integration then collapsed sharply in the interwar period.

After the Second World War trade within Europe rebounded, and from the 1990s onwards exceeded the highest levels of the first wave of globalization. In addition, Western Europe then started to increasingly trade with Asia, the Americas, and to a smaller extent Africa and Oceania.

The next graph, using data from Broadberry and O'Rourke (2010) 3 , shows another perspective on the integration of the global economy and plots the evolution of three indicators measuring integration across different markets – specifically goods, labor, and capital markets.

The indicators in this chart are indexed, so they show changes relative to the levels of integration observed in 1900. This gives us another perspective on how quickly global integration collapsed with the two World Wars. 4

The second wave of globalization was enabled by technology

The worldwide expansion of trade after the Second World War was largely possible because of reductions in transaction costs stemming from technological advances, such as the development of commercial civil aviation, the improvement of productivity in the merchant marines, and the democratization of the telephone as the main mode of communication. The visualization shows how, at the global level, costs across these three variables have been going down since 1930.

Reductions in transaction costs impacted not only the volumes of trade but also the types of exchanges that were possible and profitable.

The first wave of globalization was characterized by inter-industry trade. This means that countries exported goods that were very different from what they imported – England exchanged machines for Australian wool and Indian tea. As transaction costs went down, this changed. In the second wave of globalization, we are seeing a rise in intra -industry trade (i.e. the exchange of broadly similar goods and services is becoming more and more common). France, for example, now both imports and exports machines to and from Germany.

The following visualization, from the UN World Development Report (2009) , plots the fraction of total world trade that is accounted for by intra-industry trade, by type of goods. As we can see, intra-industry trade has been going up for primary, intermediate, and final goods.

This pattern of trade is important because the scope for specialization increases if countries are able to exchange intermediate goods (e.g. auto parts) for related final goods (e.g. cars).

Trade and trade partners by country

Above, we examined the broad global trends over the last two centuries. Let's now examine country-level trends over this long and dynamic period.

This chart plots estimates of the value of trade in goods, relative to total economic activity (i.e. export-to-GDP ratios).

These historical estimates obviously come with a large margin of error (in the measurement section below we discuss the data limitations); yet they offer an interesting perspective.

You can edit the countries and regions selected. Each country tells a different story. 6

In the next chart we plot, country by country, the regional breakdown of exports. India is shown by default, but you can edit the countries and regions shown.

When switching to displaying relative values under ‘Settings’, we see the proportional contribution of purchases from each region. For example, we see that more than a third of Indian exports went to Asian countries in recent decades.

This gives us an interesting perspective on the changing nature of trade partnerships. In India, we see the rising importance of trade with Africa—a pattern that we discuss in more detail below .

Trade around the world today

How much do countries trade, trade openness around the world.

The metric trade as a share of GDP gives us an idea of global integration by capturing all incoming and outgoing transactions of a country.

The charts shows that countries differ a lot in the extent to which they engage in trade. Trade, for example, is much less important to the US economy than for other rich countries.

If you press the play button on the map, you can see changes over time. This reveals that, despite the great variation between countries, there is a common trend: over the last couple of decades trade openness has gone up in most countries.

Exports and imports in real dollars

Expressing the value of trade as a share of GDP tells us the importance of trade in relation to the size of economic activity. Let's now take a look at trade in monetary terms – this tells us the importance of trade in absolute, rather than relative terms.

The chart shows the value of exports (goods plus services) in dollars, country by country.

The main takeaway here is that the trend towards more trade is more pronounced than in the charts showing shares of GDP. This is not surprising: most countries today produce more than a couple of decades ago , and at the same time they trade more of what they produce. 7

What do countries trade?

Trade in goods vs. trade in services.

Trade transactions include goods (tangible products that are physically shipped across borders by road, rail, water, or air) and services (intangible commodities, such as tourism, financial services, and legal advice).

Many traded services make merchandise trade easier or cheaper—for example, shipping services, or insurance and financial services.

Trade in goods has been happening for millennia , while trade in services is a relatively recent phenomenon.

In some countries services are today an important driver of trade: in the UK services account for around half of all exports; and in the Bahamas, almost all exports are services.

In other countries, such as Nigeria and Venezuela, services account for a small share of total exports.

Globally, trade in goods accounts for the majority of trade transactions. But as this chart shows, the share of services in total global exports has slightly increased in recent decades. 8

How are trade partnerships changing?

Bilateral trade is becoming increasingly common.

If we consider all pairs of countries that engage in trade around the world, we find that in the majority of cases, there is a bilateral relationship today: most countries that export goods to a country also import goods from the same country.

The interactive visualization shows this. 9 In the chart, all possible country pairs are partitioned into three categories: the top portion represents the fraction of country pairs that do not trade with one another; the middle portion represents those that trade in both directions (they export to one another); and the bottom portion represents those that trade in one direction only (one country imports from, but does not export to, the other country).

As we can see, bilateral trade is becoming increasingly common (the middle portion has grown substantially). However, many countries still do not trade with each other at all.

South-South trade is becoming increasingly important

The next visualization here shows the share of world merchandise trade that corresponds to exchanges between today's rich countries and the rest of the world.

The 'rich countries' in this chart are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Cyprus, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom and the United States. 'Non-rich countries' are all the other countries in the world.

As we can see, up until the Second World War, the majority of trade transactions involved exchanges between this small group of rich countries. But this has changed quickly over the last couple of decades, and today, trade between non-rich countries is just as important as trade between rich countries.

In the past two decades, China has been a key driver of this dynamic: the UN Human Development Report (2013) estimates that between 1992 and 2011, China's trade with Sub-Saharan Africa rose from $1 billion to more than $140 billion. 10

The majority of preferential trade agreements are between emerging economies

The last few decades have not only seen an increase in the volume of international trade, but also an increase in the number of preferential trade agreements through which exchanges take place. A preferential trade agreement is a trade pact that reduces tariffs between the participating countries for certain products.

The visualization here shows the evolution of the cumulative number of preferential trade agreements in force worldwide, according to the World Trade Organization (WTO). These numbers include notified and non-notified preferential agreements (the source reports that only about two-thirds of the agreements currently in force have been notified to the WTO) and are disaggregated by country groups.

This figure shows the increasingly important role of trade between developing countries (South-South trade), vis-a-vis trade between developed and developing countries (North-South trade). In the late 1970s, North-South agreements accounted for more than half of all agreements – in 2010, they accounted for about one-quarter. Today, the majority of preferential trade agreements are between developing economies.

Trading patterns have been changing quickly in middle-income countries

An important change in the composition of exported goods in these countries has accompanied the increase in trade among emerging economies over the last half century.

The next visualization plots the share of food exports in each country's total exported merchandise. These figures, produced by the World Bank, correspond to the Standard International Trade Classification, in which 'food' includes, among other goods, live animals, beverages, tobacco, coffee, oils, and fats.

Two points stand out. First, the relative importance of food exports has substantially decreased in most countries since the 1960s (although globally, it has gone up slightly more recently). Second, this decrease has been largest in middle-income countries, particularly in Latin America.

Regarding levels, as one would expect, in high-income countries, food still accounts for a much smaller share of merchandise exports than in most low- and middle-income-countries.

Trade generates efficiency gains

The raw correlation between trade and growth.

Over the last couple of centuries, the world economy has experienced sustained positive economic growth , and over the same period, this process of economic growth has been accompanied by even faster growth in global trade .

In a similar way, if we look at country-level data from the last half century we find that there is also a correlation between economic growth and trade: countries with higher rates of GDP growth also tend to have higher rates of growth in trade as a share of output. This basic correlation is shown in the chart here, where we plot the average annual change in real GDP per capita, against growth in trade (average annual change in value of exports as a share of GDP). 11

Is this statistical association between economic output and trade causal?

Among the potential growth-enhancing factors that may come from greater global economic integration are: competition (firms that fail to adopt new technologies and cut costs are more likely to fail and be replaced by more dynamic firms); economies of scale (firms that can export to the world face larger demand, and under the right conditions, they can operate at larger scales where the price per unit of product is lower); learning and innovation (firms that trade gain more experience and exposure to develop and adopt technologies and industry standards from foreign competitors). 12

Are these mechanisms supported by the data? Let's take a look at the available empirical evidence.

Evidence from cross-country differences in trade, growth, and productivity

When it comes to academic studies estimating the impact of trade on GDP growth, the most cited paper is Frankel and Romer (1999). 13

In this study, Frankel and Romer used geography as a proxy for trade to estimate the impact of trade on growth. This is a classic example of the so-called instrumental variables approach . The idea is that a country's geography is fixed, and mainly affects national income through trade. So if we observe that a country's distance from other countries is a powerful predictor of economic growth (after accounting for other characteristics), then the conclusion is drawn that it must be because trade has an effect on economic growth. Following this logic, Frankel and Romer find evidence of a strong impact of trade on economic growth.

Other papers have applied the same approach to richer cross-country data, and they have found similar results. A key example is Alcalá and Ciccone (2004). 14

This body of evidence suggests trade is indeed one of the factors driving national average incomes (GDP per capita) and macroeconomic productivity (GDP per worker) over the long run. 15

Evidence from changes in labor productivity at the firm level

If trade is causally linked to economic growth, we would expect that trade liberalization episodes also lead to firms becoming more productive in the medium and even short run. There is evidence suggesting this is often the case.

Pavcnik (2002) examined the effects of liberalized trade on plant productivity in the case of Chile, during the late 1970s and early 1980s. She found a positive impact on firm productivity in the import-competing sector. She also found evidence of aggregate productivity improvements from the reshuffling of resources and output from less to more efficient producers. 16

Bloom, Draca, and Van Reenen (2016) examined the impact of rising Chinese import competition on European firms over the period 1996-2007 and obtained similar results. They found that innovation increased more in those firms most affected by Chinese imports. They also found evidence of efficiency gains through two related channels: innovation increased and new existing technologies were adopted within firms, and aggregate productivity also increased because employment was reallocated towards more technologically advanced firms. 17

Trade does not only increase efficiency gains

Overall, the available evidence suggests that trade liberalization does improve economic efficiency. This evidence comes from different political and economic contexts and includes both micro and macro measures of efficiency.

This result is important because it shows that there are gains from trade. But of course, efficiency is not the only relevant consideration here. As we discuss in a companion article , the efficiency gains from trade are not generally equally shared by everyone. The evidence from the impact of trade on firm productivity confirms this: "reshuffling workers from less to more efficient producers" means closing down some jobs in some places. Because distributional concerns are real it is important to promote public policies – such as unemployment benefits and other safety-net programs – that help redistribute the gains from trade.

Trade has distributional consequences

The conceptual link between trade and household welfare.

When a country opens up to trade, the demand and supply of goods and services in the economy shift. As a consequence, local markets respond, and prices change. This has an impact on households, both as consumers and as wage earners.

The implication is that trade has an impact on everyone. It's not the case that the effects are restricted to workers from industries in the trade sector; or to consumers who buy imported goods. The effects of trade extend to everyone because markets are interlinked, so imports and exports have knock-on effects on all prices in the economy, including those in non-traded sectors.

Economists usually distinguish between "general equilibrium consumption effects" (i.e. changes in consumption that arise from the fact that trade affects the prices of non-traded goods relative to traded goods) and "general equilibrium income effects" (i.e. changes in wages that arise from the fact that trade has an impact on the demand for specific types of workers, who could be employed in both the traded and non-traded sectors).

Considering all these complex interrelations, it's not surprising that economic theories predict that not everyone will benefit from international trade in the same way. The distribution of the gains from trade depends on what different groups of people consume, and which types of jobs they have, or could have. 18

The link between trade, jobs and wages

Evidence from chinese imports and their impact on factory workers in the us.

The most famous study looking at this question is Autor, Dorn and Hanson (2013): "The China syndrome: Local labor market effects of import competition in the United States". 19

In this paper, Autor and coauthors examined how local labor markets changed in the parts of the country most exposed to Chinese competition. They found that rising exposure increased unemployment, lowered labor force participation, and reduced wages. Additionally, they found that claims for unemployment and healthcare benefits also increased in more trade-exposed labor markets.

The visualization here is one of the key charts from their paper. It's a scatter plot of cross-regional exposure to rising imports, against changes in employment. Each dot is a small region (a 'commuting zone' to be precise). The vertical position of the dots represents the percent change in manufacturing employment for the working-age population, and the horizontal position represents the predicted exposure to rising imports (exposure varies across regions depending on the local weight of different industries).

The trend line in this chart shows a negative relationship: more exposure goes along with less employment. There are large deviations from the trend (there are some low-exposure regions with big negative changes in employment); but the paper provides more sophisticated regressions and robustness checks, and finds that this relationship is statistically significant.

This result is important because it shows that the labor market adjustments were large. Many workers and communities were affected over a long period of time. 20

But it's also important to keep in mind that Autor and colleagues are only giving us a partial perspective on the total effect of trade on employment. In particular, comparing changes in employment at the regional level misses the fact that firms operate in multiple regions and industries at the same time. Indeed, Ildikó Magyari found evidence suggesting the Chinese trade shock provided incentives for US firms to diversify and reorganize production. 21

So companies that outsourced jobs to China often ended up closing some lines of business, but at the same time expanded other lines elsewhere in the US. This means that job losses in some regions subsidized new jobs in other parts of the country.

On the whole, Magyari finds that although Chinese imports may have reduced employment within some establishments, these losses were more than offset by gains in employment within the same firms in other places. This is no consolation to people who lost their jobs. But it is necessary to add this perspective to the simplistic story of "trade with China is bad for US workers".

Evidence from the expansion of trade in India and the impact on poverty reductions

Another important paper in this field is Topalova (2010): "Factor immobility and regional impacts of trade liberalization: Evidence on poverty from India". 22

In this paper, Topalova examines the impact of trade liberalization on poverty across different regions in India, using the sudden and extensive change in India's trade policy in 1991. She finds that rural regions that were more exposed to liberalization experienced a slower decline in poverty and lower consumption growth.

Analyzing the mechanisms underlying this effect, Topalova finds that liberalization had a stronger negative impact among the least geographically mobile at the bottom of the income distribution and in places where labor laws deterred workers from reallocating across sectors.

The evidence from India shows that (i) discussions that only look at "winners" in poor countries and "losers" in rich countries miss the point that the gains from trade are unequally distributed within both sets of countries; and (ii) context-specific factors, like worker mobility across sectors and geographic regions, are crucial to understand the impact of trade on incomes.

Evidence from other studies

• Donaldson (2018) uses archival data from colonial India to estimate the impact of India’s vast railroad network. He finds railroads increased trade, and in doing so they increased real incomes (and reduced income volatility). 23
• Porto (2006) looks at the distributional effects of Mercosur on Argentine families, and finds this regional trade agreement led to benefits across the entire income distribution. He finds the effect was progressive: poor households gained more than middle-income households because prior to the reform, trade protection benefitted the rich disproportionately. 24
• Trefler (2004) looks at the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement and finds there was a group who bore "adjustment costs" (displaced workers and struggling plants) and a group who enjoyed "long-run gains" (consumers and efficient plants). 25

The link between trade and the cost of living

The fact that trade negatively affects labor market opportunities for specific groups of people does not necessarily imply that trade has a negative aggregate effect on household welfare. This is because, while trade affects wages and employment, it also affects the prices of consumption goods. So households are affected both as consumers and as wage earners.

Most studies focus on the earnings channel and try to approximate the impact of trade on welfare by looking at how much wages can buy, using as a reference the changing prices of a fixed basket of goods.

This approach is problematic because it fails to consider welfare gains from increased product variety, and obscures complicated distributional issues such as the fact that poor and rich individuals consume different baskets so they benefit differently from changes in relative prices. 26

Ideally, studies looking at the impact of trade on household welfare should rely on fine-grained data on prices, consumption, and earnings. This is the approach followed in Atkin, Faber, and Gonzalez-Navarro (2018): "Retail globalization and household welfare: Evidence from Mexico". 27

Atkin and coauthors use a uniquely rich dataset from Mexico, and find that the arrival of global retail chains led to reductions in the incomes of traditional retail sector workers, but had little impact on average municipality-level incomes or employment; and led to lower costs of living for both rich and poor households.

The chart here shows the estimated distribution of total welfare gains across the household income distribution (the light-gray lines correspond to confidence intervals). These are proportional gains expressed as a percent of initial household income.

As we can see, there is a net positive welfare effect across all income groups; but these improvements in welfare are regressive, in the sense that richer households gain proportionally more (about 7.5 percent gain compared to 5 percent). 28

Evidence from other countries confirms this is not an isolated case – the expenditure channel really seems to be an important and understudied source of household welfare. Giuseppe Berlingieri, Holger Breinlich, Swati Dhingra, for example, investigated the consumer benefits from trade agreements implemented by the EU between 1993 and 2013; and they found that these trade agreements increased the quality of available products, which translated into a cumulative reduction in consumer prices equivalent to savings of €24 billion per year for EU consumers. 29

Implications of trade’s distributional effects

The available evidence shows that, for some groups of people, trade has a negative effect on wages and employment opportunities; at the same time, it has a large positive effect via lower consumer prices and increased product availability.

Two points are worth emphasizing.

For some households, the net effect is positive. But for some households that's not the case. In particular, workers who lose their jobs can be affected for extended periods of time, so the positive effect via lower prices is not enough to compensate them for the reduction in earnings.

On the whole, if we aggregate changes in welfare across households, the net effect is usually positive. But this is hardly a consolation for the worse off.

This highlights a complex reality: There are aggregate gains from trade , but there are also real distributional concerns. Even if trade is not a major driver of income inequalities , it's important to keep in mind that public policies, such as unemployment benefits and other safety-net programs, can and should help redistribute the gains from trade.

Explaining trade patterns: Theory and Evidence

Comparative advantage, theory: what is 'comparative advantage' and why does it matter to understand trade.

In economic theory, the 'economic cost' – or the 'opportunity cost' – of producing a good is the value of everything you need to give up in order to produce that good.

Economic costs include physical inputs (the value of the stuff you use to produce the good), plus forgone opportunities (when you allocate scarce resources to a task, you give up alternative uses of those resources).

A country or a person is said to have a 'comparative advantage' if it can produce something at a lower opportunity cost than its trade partners.

The forgone opportunities of production are key to understanding this concept. It is precisely this that distinguishes absolute advantage from comparative advantage.

To see the difference between comparative and absolute advantage, consider a commercial aviation pilot and a baker. Suppose the pilot is an excellent chef, and she can bake just as well, or even better than the baker. In this case, the pilot has an absolute advantage in both tasks. Yet the baker probably has a comparative advantage in baking, because the opportunity cost of baking is much higher for the pilot.

The freely available economics textbook The Economy: Economics for a Changing World explains this as follows: "A person or country has comparative advantage in the production of a particular good, if the cost of producing an additional unit of that good relative to the cost of producing another good is lower than another person or country’s cost to produce the same two goods."

At the individual level, comparative advantage explains why you might want to delegate tasks to someone else, even if you can do those tasks better and faster than them. This may sound counterintuitive, but it is not: If you are good at many things, it means that investing time in one task has a high opportunity cost, because you are not doing the other amazing things you could be doing with your time and resources. So, at least from an efficiency point of view, you should specialize on what you are best at, and delegate the rest.

The same logic applies to countries. Broadly speaking, the principle of comparative advantage postulates that all nations can gain from trade if each specializes in producing what they are relatively more efficient at producing, and imports the rest: “do what you do best, import the rest”. 30

In countries with a relative abundance of certain factors of production, the theory of comparative advantage predicts that they will export goods that rely heavily upon those factors: a country typically has a comparative advantage in those goods that use its abundant resources. Colombia exports bananas to Europe because it has comparatively abundant tropical weather.

Is there empirical support for comparative-advantage theories of trade?

The empirical evidence suggests that the principle of comparative advantage does help explain trade patterns. Bernhofen and Brown (2004) 31 , for instance, provide evidence using the experience of Japan. Specifically, they exploit Japan’s dramatic nineteenth-century move from a state of near complete isolation to wide trade openness.

The graph here shows the price changes of the key tradable goods after the opening up to trade. It presents a scatter diagram of the net exports in 1869 graphed in relation to the change in prices from 1851–53 to 1869. As we can see, this is consistent with the theory: after opening to trade, the relative prices of major exports such as silk increased (Japan exported what was cheap for them to produce and which was valuable abroad), while the relative price of imports such as sugar declined (they imported what was relatively more difficult for them to produce, but was cheap abroad).

Trade diminishes with distance

The resistance that geography imposes on trade has long been studied in the empirical economics literature – and the main conclusion is that trade intensity is strongly linked to geographic distance.

The visualization, from Eaton and Kortum (2002), graphs 'normalized import shares' against distance. 32 Each dot represents a country pair from a set of 19 OECD countries, and both the vertical and horizontal axes are expressed on logarithmic scales.

The 'normalized import shares' in the vertical axis provide a measure of how much each country imports from different partners (see the paper for details on how this is calculated and normalized), while the distance in the horizontal axis corresponds to the distance between central cities in each country (see the paper and references therein for details on the list of cities). As we can see, there is a strong negative relationship. Trade diminishes with distance. Through econometric modeling, the paper shows that this relationship is not just a correlation driven by other factors: their findings suggest that distance imposes a significant barrier to trade.

The fact that trade diminishes with distance is also corroborated by data on trade intensity within countries. The visualization here shows, through a series of maps, the geographic distribution of French firms that export to France's neighboring countries. The colors reflect the percentage of firms that export to each specific country.

As we can see, the share of firms exporting to each of the corresponding neighbors is the largest close to the border. The authors also show in the paper that this pattern holds for the value of individual-firm exports – trade value decreases with distance to the border.

Institutions

Conducting international trade requires both financial and non-financial institutions to support transactions. Some of these institutions are fairly obvious (e.g. law enforcement); but some are less obvious. For example, the evidence shows that producers in exporting countries often need credit in order to engage in trade.

The scatter plot, from Manova (2013), shows the correlation between levels in private credit (specifically exporters’ private credit as a share of GDP) and exports (average log bilateral exports across destinations and sectors). 34 As can be seen, financially developed economies – those with more dynamic private credit markets – typically outperform exporters with less evolved financial institutions.

Other studies have shown that country-specific institutions, like the knowledge of foreign languages, for instance, are also important to promote foreign relative to domestic trade. 35

Increasing returns to scale

The concept of comparative advantage predicts that if all countries had identical endowments and institutions, there would be little incentive for specialization because the opportunity cost of producing any good would be the same in every country.

So you may wonder: why is it then the case that in the last few years, we have seen such rapid growth in intra-industry trade between rich countries?

The increase in intra-industry between rich countries seems paradoxical under the light of comparative advantage because in recent decades we have seen convergence in key factors, such as human capital , across these countries.

The solution to the paradox is actually not very complicated: Comparative advantage is one, but not the only force driving incentives to specialization and trade.

Several economists, most notably Paul Krugman, have developed theories of trade in which trade is not due to differences between countries, but instead due to "increasing returns to scale" – an economic term used to denote a technology in which producing extra units of a good becomes cheaper if you operate at a larger scale.

The idea is that specialization allows countries to reap greater economies of scale (i.e. to reduce production costs by focusing on producing large quantities of specific products), so trade can be a good idea even if the countries do not differ in endowments, including culture and institutions.

These models of trade, often referred to as “New Trade Theory”, are helpful in explaining why in the last few years we have seen such rapid growth in two-way exchanges of goods within industries between developed nations.

In a much-cited paper, Evenett and Keller (2002) show that both factor endowments and increasing returns help explain production and trade patterns around the world. 36

You can learn more about New Trade Theory, and the empirical support behind it, in Paul Krugman's Nobel lecture .

Measurement and data quality

There are dozens of official sources of data on international trade, and if you compare these different sources, you will find that they do not agree with one another. Even if you focus on what seems to be the same indicator for the same year in the same country, discrepancies are large.

Such differences between sources can also be found in rich countries where statistical agencies tend to follow international reporting guidelines more closely.

There are also large bilateral discrepancies within sources: the value of goods that country A exports to country B can be more than the value of goods that country B imports from country A.

Here we explain how international trade data is collected and processed, and why there are such large discrepancies.

What data is available?

The data hubs from several large international organizations publish and maintain extensive cross-country datasets on international trade. Here's a list of the most important ones:

• World Bank Open Data
• WTO Statistics
• UN Comtrade
• UNCTAD World Integrated Trade Solutions

In addition to these sources, there are also many other academic projects that publish data on international trade. These projects tend to rely on data from one or more of the sources above, and they typically process and merge series in order to improve coverage and consistency. Three important sources are:

• The Correlates of War Project . 37
• The NBER-United Nations Trade Dataset Project .
• The CEPII Bilateral Trade and Gravity Data Project . 38

How large are the discrepancies between sources?

In the visualization here, we compare the data published by several of the sources listed above, country by country, from 1955 to today.

For each country, we exclude trade in services, and we focus only on estimates of the total value of exported goods, expressed as shares of GDP. 39

As this chart clearly shows, different data sources often tell very different stories. If you change the country or region shown you will see that this is true, to varying degrees, across all countries and years.

Constructing this chart was demanding. It required downloading trade data from many different sources, collecting the relevant series, and then standardizing them so that the units of measure and the geographical territories were consistent.

All series, except the two long-run series from CEPII and NBER-UN, were produced from data published by the sources in current US dollars and then converted to GDP shares using a unique source (World Bank).

So, if all series are in the same units (share of national GDP) and they measure the same thing (value of goods exported from one country to the rest of the world), what explains the differences?

Let's dig deeper to understand what's going on.

Why doesn't the data add up?

Differences in guidelines used by countries to record and report trade data.

Broadly speaking, there are two main approaches used to estimate international merchandise trade:

• The first approach relies on estimating trade from customs records , often complementing or correcting figures with data from enterprise surveys and administrative records associated with taxation. The main manual providing guidelines for this approach is the International Merchandise Trade Statistics Manual (IMTS).
• The second approach relies on estimating trade from macroeconomic data , typically National Accounts . The main manual providing guidelines for this approach is the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6), which was drafted in parallel with the 2008 System of National Accounts of the United Nations (SNA 2008). The idea behind this approach is to record changes in economic ownership. 40

Under these two approaches, it is common to distinguish between 'traded merchandise' and 'traded goods'. The distinction is often made because goods simply being transported through a country (i.e., goods in transit) are not considered to change a country's stock of material resources and are hence often excluded from the more narrow concept of 'merchandise trade'.

Also, adding to the complexity, countries often rely on measurement protocols developed alongside approaches and concepts that are not perfectly compatible to begin with. In Europe, for example, countries use the 'Compilers guide on European statistics on international trade in goods'.

Measurement error and other inconsistencies

Even when two sources rely on the same broad accounting approach, discrepancies arise because countries fail to adhere perfectly to the protocols.

In theory, for example, the exports of country A to country B should mirror the imports of country B from country A. But in practice this is rarely the case because of differences in valuation. According to the BPM6, imports, and exports should be recorded in the balance of payments accounts on a ' free on board (FOB) basis', which means using prices that include all charges up to placing the goods on board a ship at the port of departure. Yet many countries stick to FOB values only for exports, and use CIF values for imports (CIF stands for 'Cost, Insurance and Freight', and includes the costs of transportation). 41

The chart here gives you an idea of how large import-export asymmetries are. Shown are the differences between the value of goods that each country reports exporting to the US, and the value of goods that the US reports importing from the same countries. For example, for China, the figure in the chart corresponds to the “Value of merchandise imports in the US from China” minus the “Value of merchandise exports from China to the US”.

The differences in the chart here, which are both positive and negative, suggest that there is more going on than differences in FOB vs. CIF values. If all asymmetries were coming from FOB-CIF differences, then we should only see positive values in the chart (recall that, unlike FOB values, CIF values include the cost of transportation, so CIF values are larger).

What else may be going on here?

Another common source of measurement error relates to the inconsistent attribution of trade partners. An example is failure to follow the guidelines on how to treat goods passing through intermediary countries for processing or merchanting purposes. As global production chains become more complex, countries find it increasingly difficult to unambiguously establish the origin and final destination of merchandise, even when rules are established in the manuals. 42

And there are still more potential sources of discrepancies. For example differences in customs and tax regimes, and differences between "general" and "special" trade systems (i.e. differences between statistical territories and actual country borders, which do not often coincide because of things like 'custom free zones'). 43

Even when two sources have identical trade estimates, inconsistencies in published data can arise from differences in exchange rates. If a dataset reports cross-country trade data in US dollars, estimates will vary depending on the exchange rates used. Different exchange rates will lead to conflicting estimates, even if figures in local currency units are consistent.

A checklist for comparing sources

Asymmetries in international trade statistics are large and arise for a variety of reasons. These include conceptual inconsistencies across measurement standards and inconsistencies in the way countries apply agreed-upon protocols. Here's a checklist of issues to keep in mind when comparing sources.

• Differences in underlying records: is trade measured from National Accounts data rather than directly from custom or tax records?
• Differences in import and export valuations: are transactions valued at FOB or CIF prices?
• Inconsistent attribution of trade partners: how is the origin and final destination of merchandise established?
• Difference between 'goods' and 'merchandise': how are re-importing, re-exporting, and intermediary merchanting transactions recorded?
• Exchange rates: how are values converted from local currency units to the currency that allows international comparisons (most often the US-$)?
• Differences between 'general' and 'special' trade system: how is trade recorded for custom-free zones?
• Other issues: Time of recording, confidentiality policies, product classification, deliberate mis-invoicing for illicit purposes.

Many organizations producing trade data have long recognized these factors. Indeed, international organizations often incorporate corrections in an attempt to improve data quality.

The OECD's Balanced International Merchandise Trade Statistics , for example, uses its own approach to correct and reconcile international merchandise trade statistics. 44

The corrections applied in the OECD's 'balanced' series make this the best source for cross-country comparisons. However, this dataset has low coverage across countries, and it only goes back to 2011. This is an important obstacle since the complex adjustments introduced by the OECD imply we can't easily improve coverage by appending data from other sources. At Our World in Data we have chosen to rely on CEPII as the main source for exploring long-run changes in international trade, but we also rely on World Bank and OECD data for up-to-date cross-country comparisons.

There are two key lessons from all of this. The first lesson is that, for most users of trade data out there, there is no obvious way of choosing between sources. And the second lesson is that, because of statistical glitches, researchers and policymakers should always take analyses of trade data with a pinch of salt. For example, in a recent high-profile report , researchers attributed mismatches in bilateral trade data to illicit financial flows through trade mis-invoicing (or trade-based money laundering). As we show here, this interpretation of the data is not appropriate, since mismatches in the data can, and often do arise from measurement inconsistencies rather than malfeasance. 45

Hopefully, the discussion and checklist above can help researchers better interpret and choose between conflicting data sources.

Interactive charts on Trade and Globalization

The openness index, when calculated for the world as a whole, includes double-counting of transactions: When country A sells goods to country B, this shows up in the data both as an import (B imports from A) and as an export (A sells to B).

Indeed, if you compare the chart showing the global trade openness index and the chart showing global merchandise exports as a share of GDP , you find that the former is almost twice as large as the latter.

Why is the global openness index not exactly twice the value reported in the chart plotting global merchandise exports? There a three reasons.

First, the global openness index uses different sources. Second, the global openness index includes trade in goods and services, while merchandise exports include goods but not services. And third, the amount that country A reports exporting to country B does not usually match the amount that B reports importing from A.

We explore this in more detail in our measurement section .

Leonor Freire Costa, Nuno Palma, and Jaime Reis (2015) – The great escape? The contribution of the empire to Portugal's economic growth, 1500–1800 Leonor Freire Costa Nuno Palma Jaime Reis European Review of Economic History, Volume 19, Issue 1, 1 February 2015, Pages 1–22, https://doi.org/10.1093/ereh/heu019

Broadberry and O'Rourke (2010) - The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Europe: Volume 2, 1870 to the Present. Cambridge University Press.

Integration in the goods markets is measured here through the 'trade openness index', which is defined by the sum of exports and imports as a share of GDP. In our interactive chart you can explore trends in trade openness over this period for a selection of European countries.

Broadberry and O'Rourke (2010) - The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Europe: Volume 2, 1870 to the Present. Cambridge University Press. The graph depicts the “evolution of three indicators measuring integration in commodity, labor, and capital markets over the long run. Commodity market integration is measured by computing the ratio of exports to GDP. Labor market integration is measured by dividing the migratory turnover by population. Financial integration is measured using Feldstein–Horioka estimators of current account disconnectedness.”

We also have the same chart but showing imports .

We also have the same chart, but showing imports .

This interactive chart shows trade in services as a share of GDP across countries and regions.

This chart was inspired by a chart from Helpman, E., Melitz, M., & Rubinstein, Y. (2007). Estimating trade flows: Trading partners and trading volumes (No. w12927). National Bureau of Economic Research.

We also have the same data, but as a stacked-area chart .

There are different ways of capturing this correlation. I focus here on all countries with data over the period 1945-2014. You can find a similar chart using different data sources and time periods in Ventura, J. (2005). A global view of economic growth. Handbook of economic growth, 1, 1419-1497. Online here .

The textbook The Economy: Economics for a Changing World explains this in more detail.

Frankel, J. A., & Romer, D. H. (1999). Does trade cause growth? American Economic Review, 89(3), 379-399.

Alcalá, F., & Ciccone, A. (2004). Trade and productivity . The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(2), 613-646.

There are many papers that try to answer this specific question with macro data. For an overview of papers and methods see: Durlauf, S. N., Johnson, P. A., & Temple, J. R. (2005). Growth econometrics. Handbook of economic growth, 1, 555-677.

Pavcnik, N. (2002). Trade liberalization, exit, and productivity improvements: Evidence from Chilean plants . The Review of Economic Studies, 69(1), 245-276.

Bloom, N., Draca, M., & Van Reenen, J. (2016). Trade induced technical change? The impact of Chinese imports on innovation, IT and productivity. The Review of Economic Studies, 83(1), 87-117. Available online here .

You can read more about these economic concepts, and the related predictions from economic theory, in Chapter 18 of the textbook The Economy: Economics for a Changing World .

David, H., Dorn, D., & Hanson, G. H. (2013). The China syndrome: Local labor market effects of import competition in the United States . American Economic Review, 103(6), 2121-68.

It's important to mention here that the economist Jonathan Rothwell wrote a paper suggesting these findings are the result of a statistical illusion. Rothwell's critique received some attention from the media , but Autor and coauthors provided a reply , which I think successfully refutes this claim.

Magyari, I. (2017). Firm Reorganization, Chinese Imports, and US Manufacturing Employment . US Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies.

Topalova, P. (2010). Factor immobility and regional impacts of trade liberalization: Evidence on poverty from India . American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 2(4), 1-41.

Donaldson, D. (2018). Railroads of the Raj: Estimating the impact of transportation infrastructure . American Economic Review, 108(4-5), 899-934.

Porto, G (2006). Using Survey Data to Assess the Distributional Effects of Trade Policy. Journal of International Economics 70 (2006) 140–160.

Trefler, D. (2004). The long and short of the Canada-US free trade agreement . American Economic Review, 94(4), 870-895.

See: (i) Feenstra, R. C., & Weinstein, D. E. (2017). Globalization, markups, and US welfare . Journal of Political Economy, 125(4), 1040-1074. (ii) Fajgelbaum, P. D., & Khandelwal, A. K. (2016). Measuring the unequal gains from trade . The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(3), 1113-1180.

Atkin, David, Benjamin Faber, and Marco Gonzalez-Navarro. "Retail globalization and household welfare: Evidence from Mexico." Journal of Political Economy 126.1 (2018): 1-73.

In the paper, Atkin and coauthors explore the reasons for this and find that the regressive nature of the distribution is mainly due to richer households placing higher weight on the product variety and shopping amenities on offer at these new foreign stores.

Berlingieri, G., Breinlich, H., & Dhingra, S. (2018). The Impact of Trade Agreements on Consumer Welfare—Evidence from the EU Common External Trade Policy. Journal of the European Economic Association.

Nobel laureate Paul Samuelson (1969) was once challenged by the mathematician Stanislaw Ulam: "Name me one proposition in all of the social sciences which is both true and non-trivial." It was several years later than he thought of the correct response: comparative advantage. "That it is logically true need not be argued before a mathematician; that is is not trivial is attested by the thousands of important and intelligent men who have never been able to grasp the doctrine for themselves or to believe it after it was explained to them."

(NB. This is an excerpt from https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/reser_e/cadv_e.htm)

Bernhofen, D., & Brown, J. (2004). A Direct Test of the Theory of Comparative Advantage: The Case of Japan. Journal of Political Economy, 112(1), 48-67. doi:1. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/379944 doi:1

Eaton, J., & Kortum, S. (2002). Technology, geography, and trade. Econometrica, 70(5), 1741-1779.

Crozet, M., & Koenig, P. (2010). Structural Gravity Equations with Intensive and Extensive Margins. The Canadian Journal of Economics / Revue Canadienne D'Economique, 43(1), 41-62. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/40389555

Manova, Kalina. "Credit constraints, heterogeneous firms, and international trade." The Review of Economic Studies 80.2 (2013): 711-744.

Melitz, J. (2008). Language and foreign trade. European Economic Review, 52(4), 667-699.

Evenett, S. J., & Keller, W. (2002). On theories explaining the success of the gravity equation . Journal of Political Economy, 110(2), 281-316.

For more information on how the COW trade datasets were constructed see: (i) Barbieri, Katherine, and Omar M. G. Omar Keshk. 2016. Correlates of War Project Trade Data Set Codebook, Version 4.0. Available at http://correlatesofwar.org and (ii) Barbieri, Katherine, Omar M. G. Keshk, and Brian Pollins. 2009. TRADING DATA: Evaluating our Assumptions and Coding Rules. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 26(5): 471–491.

Further information on CEPII's methodology can be found in their working paper .

The chart includes series labeled by the sources as 'merchandise trade' and 'goods trade'. As we explain below, part of the asymmetries in trade data comes from the fact that, although 'merchandise' and 'goods' are equivalent in the dictionary, these two terms often measure related but different things.

For example, if there is no change in ownership (e.g. a firm exports goods to its factory in another country for processing, and then re-imports the processed goods) the manual says that statistical agencies should only record the net difference in value. You can find more details about this in an OECD Statistics Briefing .

This issue is actually also a source of disagreement between National Accounts data and customs data. You can read more about it in this report: Harrison, Anne (2013) FOB/CIF Issue in Merchandise Trade/Transport of Goods in BPM6 and the 2008 SNA, Twenty-Fifth Meeting of the IMF Committee on Balance of Payments Statistics, Washington, D.C .

Precisely because of the difficulty that arises when trying to establish the origin and final destination of merchandise, some sources distinguish between national and dyadic (i.e. 'directed') trade estimates.

For more details about general and special trade see the Eurostat glossary .

The OECD approach consists of four steps, which they describe as follows: "First, data are collected and organized, and imports are converted to FOB prices to match the valuation of exports. Secondly, data are adjusted for several specific large problems known to drive asymmetries. Presently these include “modular” adjustments for unallocated and confidential trade; for exports by Hong Kong, China; for Swiss non-monetary gold; and for clear-cut cases of product misclassifications. The list of modules is expected to grow over time. In the third step, adjusted data are balanced using a “Symmetry Index” that weights exports and imports. As the final step, the data are also converted to Classification of Products by Activity (CPA) products to better align with National Accounts statistics, such as in national Supply-Use tables." You can read more about it here . In addition to the OECD, other sources also use corrections. The IMF's DOTS dataset, for example, uses a 6 percent rule for converting import valuations (in CIF) into export values (in FOB). More information can be found in the IMF's (2018) working paper on 'New Estimates for Direction of Trade Statistics'.

For more details on this see Forstater, M. (2018) Illicit Financial Flows, Trade Misinvoicing, and Multinational Tax Avoidance: The Same or Different? , CGD Policy Paper 123.

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What’s the latest research in international trade and integration? Researchers from the World Bank, the IMF and the WTO recently gathered for a one-day workshop to present their latest research on the topic. The papers presented addressed topical questions in areas as diverse as the links between trade, wage inequality and the poor, global value chains, non-tariff measures, preferential trade agreements, FDI restrictions, and migration. We provide a quick roundup on the papers presented during the workshop.

On trade, wage inequality, labor mobility and the poor Countries often protect their poor by raising tariffs on the goods they produce. But if all countries apply pro-poor trade policies, a coordination problem arises since the poor are employed in similar sectors across countries.  The result is that the goods the poor produce face higher barriers in destination markets. Roberta Piermartini from the WTO shows that indeed tariffs faced by Indian exports abroad are higher for goods produced by individuals in lower-income groups and by women. Removing this unbalanced access to international markets may contribute to a more even distribution of the gains from trade.   Empirical evidence shows that after countries liberalize trade, wage inequality increases gradually for several years but then stops increasing and can even decrease. The model by Matthieu Bellon from the IMF explains this evidence emphasizing the dynamics of worker reallocation between heterogeneous firms and workers in the presence of adjustment costs to labor.     Using a novel district-to-district migration dataset, Aaditya Mattoo from the World Bank studies the determinants of worker mobility across Indian districts. He provides evidence of invisible walls across state borders  explained by the existence of state-level entitlement schemes, ranging from access to subsidized goods through the public distribution system to the bias in favor of states’ own residents in access to tertiary education and public sector employment.   On Global Value Chains (GVCs)   Strong domestic linkages across firms reduce fragmentation costs but also create a lock-in situation in relationship-specific sectors. Therefore, domestic value chains (DVCs) can either be stepping stones or stumbling blocks for GVCs. Cosimo Beverelli from the WTO presents empirical evidence showing that GVCs have their foundations in DVCs, supporting the stepping stone hypothesis.   Real currency depreciations not only increase exports of domestic value-added (DVA) - a conventional result - but also increase imports of foreign value added (FVA) - a result contrasting with traditional trade theory, according to the study by Gee Hee Hong from the IMF.  These results support the idea that GVC-related exports and imports are complements in production.   On preferential trade agreements   The impact of trade agreements in existence until 1995 is revisited by Swarnali Hannan from the IMF who introduces synthetic control methods as a novel approach to establish causality. She finds substantial gains from trade agreements, with an average boost to exports among preferential partners of 80 percentage points over a decade.   Exploring the role of deep trade agreements, which go beyond tariff reduction to cover policy areas such as investment, competition policy, and intellectual property rights protection, Alen Mulabdic from the World Bank uses a new dataset on the depth and content of the agreements to show that deep trade agreements lead to more trade creation and less trade diversion than shallow trade agreements.   Below is a brief flavor of other interesting papers also presented at the workshop:

• Revisiting the trade and growth debate focusing on China as a source of supply and demand shocks, Jaebin Ahn from the IMF finds a positive impact of Chinese import penetration and export market access on sectoral total factor productivity growth in advanced economies. The recent trade slowdown could thus weigh significantly on the already weak productivity growth in advanced economies.
• Using a new methodology to estimate bilateral ad valorem equivalent (AVE) of non-tariff measures (NTMs), Hiau Looi Kee from the World Bank shows that products with higher AVEs exhibit larger discrepancies across reported import and export statistics for a given bilateral flow.  The evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that firms misdeclare product codes or country of origin to circumvent cumbersome and opaque NTMs.
• According to a unique disaggregated IMF dataset on global trade in services, presented by Saurabh Mishra from the IMF, service exports from developing countries have grown tenfold since 1990 - twice as fast as those from advanced economies.  Transport and travel have lost share in world services exports to intellectual property and financial services.
• The availability of factoring - an alternative finance instrument - is shown by Marc Auboin from the WTO to allow small firms in emerging economies to access international markets, in particular by being involved in global supply chains.
• Foreign acquisitions improve management practices – e.g., through an increase in the number of hierarchical layers and increased span of control among top managers. One reasons could be acquisition-induced reductions in communication costs within acquired firms in Portugal, according to the study by Paulo Bastos from the World Bank.
• Bilateral investment agreements can lower FDI restrictions but in practice several countries have lowered their FDI restrictions without such agreements while others retain high FDI restrictions with no interest in such agreements. The research by Mathilde Lebrand from the World Bank emphasizes the role of tax havens to which the profits of multinationals can be shifted as an important determinant of FDI restrictions.
• Aggregate trade responds sharply to spatial frictions, falling rapidly over short distances as distance to the destination increases, even within the European Single Market. The study by Shawn Tan from the World Bank shows that such sharp trade responses are explained by trade in intermediate inputs, as there is spatial clustering of firms connected by input-output linkages, who choose to co-locate to avoid trade costs.
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Trade is an engine of growth that creates jobs, reduces poverty and increases economic opportunity. The World Bank Group helps its client countries improve their access to developed country markets and enhance their participation in the world economy.

The World Bank (WB) helps developing countries improve their access to world markets and enhance their participation in the global trading system. Trade is an engine of growth that creates better jobs, reduces poverty, and increases economic opportunity. Recent research shows that trade liberalization increases economic growth by an average of 1.0 to 1.5 percentage points, resulting in 10 to 20 percent higher income after a decade. Since 1990, trade has increased incomes by 24 percent globally and by 50 percent for the poorest 40 percent of the population. Economic growth underpinned by better trade practices has lifted more than 1 billion people out of poverty since 1990.

Trade is also linked to higher female participation in the formal labor market, where wages are higher. Exporters in developing countries employ more women than non-exporters, and women comprise up to 90 percent of the workforce in export-processing zones. Fostering cooperation through trade and business is also pivotal in helping countries escape conflict.

In developing countries, access to global markets is often hindered by anti-competitive business practices, regulation that is unfavorable to business growth and investment, and inadequate ports, roads and other infrastructure. Even a country with liberal and transparent trade policy suffers if its markets are not connected. Many of the world’s poorest people live in places that are landlocked, remote, or otherwise ill-served by international trade links. The WB helps its client countries overcome these obstacles and more fully reap the benefits of global markets.

Still, we must recognize that not everyone is experiencing the benefits of globalization. Most global poverty reduction has been concentrated in Asian countries, principally in China, while other regions continue to experience high inequality and poverty. Powerful protectionist forces have begun to challenge the global community’s commitment to open trade; many in advanced economies blame trade for job losses as manufacturing and some services shift to lower-cost destinations. Disruptions to global supply chains and rising shipping costs caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have also put the economic recovery at risk, adding to calls for reshoring production of vital goods, especially medical products and semiconductors. Disruptions to global food and fertilizer markets caused by the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia jeopardized food security in developing countries.

Digitalization, and the related shift to services, promises to reshape trade and presents important opportunities for developing countries. Digital commerce allows firms of all sizes, anywhere in the world, to gain access to new markets. But many developing countries lack the necessary technical, regulatory, financial, and educational infrastructure and are at risk of being left behind. Advanced and developing countries alike will need help to smooth the transition from manufacturing to services with programs to promote skills development, labor mobility, and gender equality. Clear international rules for digital commerce will also be needed; negotiating them will require coordination and expertise from policymakers and a strong domestic digital sector that can identify challenges and potential solutions.

Promoting international trade and advancing sustainable economic development are not mutually exclusive and can be mutually reinforcing. The damage wrought by climate change highlights the urgent need for adjustments in trade: The extraction and processing of natural resources account for more than 90 percent of biodiversity loss and water stress and half of greenhouse-gas emissions. Yet with the right policies, trade can play a central part in efforts to adapt to climate change and mitigate its impact: It can foster the spread of Environmental Goods and Services such as solar panels and recycling to help reduce emissions and improve biodiversity, and it can facilitate the transfer of climate-friendly technologies. As countries adopt policies to meet their global carbon commitments, their trading partners can develop areas of “carbon competitiveness” through reduced carbon intensity of production and seize new opportunities in green growth. This will lead to more sustainable supply chains and diversification away from carbon-intensive sectors. Nevertheless, a challenge will be to combine sustainability standards with more and open trade. Developing country participation will be needed to ensure that new rules are feasible for them.

As the largest multilateral provider of Aid for Trade, the WB is advancing policies that help developing countries—and disadvantaged groups within them—benefit from the opportunities that come with trade and technological change and to ensure that trade-driven growth is green, resilient, and inclusive.

In this context, there is a need to strengthen the global trading system to help developing countries address trade-related constraints to growth. The foundations of the rules-based global trade regime, critical for ensuring the predictability of trade, remain firm but have been shaken, so reforms are needed. While there have been notable successes, such as the landmark WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA), delays in completing the Doha Round of trade talks after 20 years have diminished the role of the WTO as the global rule-maker and arbiter of trade disputes. Growing tensions have been dramatized by the trade war between the United States, traditionally a champion of free trade, and China, one of its biggest beneficiaries since joining the WTO in 2001. These tensions should not prevent all countries from exploring the untapped benefits that further trade reform can bring to the global economy.

Last Updated: Apr 04, 2022

The WB supports an open, rules-based, and predictable multilateral trading system, and it helps developing countries participate in and enjoy its benefits. To help reach these goals, the WB supports regional and multilateral trade agreements; emphasizes that trade and competitiveness are at the core of national development strategies; and promotes trade-related reforms through effective Aid for Trade.

The WB helps developing countries deepen their integration into regional and global economies, increase trade performance, and facilitate trade through improved border management and logistics. We produce cutting-edge, applied global knowledge, and we also support countries directly.

GLOBAL ANALYSIS AND DATA:

Global Studies:  WB assesses developments in trade policy. These include services for competitiveness; trade and climate change; deep trade agreements; the distributional impacts of trade; digital trade; Global Value Chains (GVCs) and reshoring; and the impact of direct and indirect government subsidies on global trade.

Global Databases:  The Trade unit provides data for global trade analysis, such as the Logistics Performance Index; Exporter Dynamics Database; Services Trade Policy Database; World Integrated Trade Solution; Database on Antidumping, Countervailing Measures and Safeguards; Frequency panel database of estimates of tourism flows and spending;   and the Deep Trade Agreements Database.

In parallel, the Trade unit supports data collection at the country level. For instance, it supported the creation of the Mauritius Trade Data Tool to better understand the anatomy of the COVID-19 trade shock, and a dataset of firm transactions in Rwanda to assess the impact of lowering import tariffs on tax revenues.

REGIONAL OR COUNTRY DIAGNOSTICS AND TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE:

Regional Trade Integration Analysis:  Assesses the potential effects of trade reforms on GDP, sectoral output, wages, and employment, as well as on sectoral reallocation and adjustment costs, poverty, and income distribution. These effects can be analyzed at an aggregate level and for local labor markets and target groups, notably women. Trade reforms studied include unilateral tariff changes, bilateral and regional Preferential Trade Agreements, and other major initiatives in regional integration, such as the  African Continental Free Trade Area  (AfCFTA).

Trade Diversification, Competitiveness Diagnostics, and Integration into GVCs:  Identifies limits and opportunities to increase and diversify merchandise exports, and to promote export sophistication, upgrading, and survival.

Services Trade Competitiveness and Regulatory Diagnostic:  Identifies potential to expand services trade across all sectors and for specific sectors (e.g. digital/ICT; tourism; professional services; transport/logistics; health and education services).

Logistics Services and Connectivity Diagnostic: These diagnostics and advisory services identify measures to reduce logistics costs and improve connectivity with domestic and international markets, helping countries improve how goods can move efficiently through the network of services (transportation, warehousing, brokerage, etc.) to their final destinations.

Trade Facilitation & Border Management Diagnostic and Technical Assistance:  Helps countries adopt modern border management and procedures, streamline procedures and reduce time and costs for the private sector, and implement the WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA).

To fund much of this work, the WB has two main, trade-related trust funds: the  Umbrella Facility for Trade , the  Trade Facilitation Support Program (TFSP) .

The WB provides rigorous analysis of key issues in global trade as well as country-focused engagements in more than 130 countries. It helps countries identify reforms to promote competition, exports, and private-sector development and to lower trade costs through better trade facilitation, logistics, and border management.

The WB provides timely data on and analysis of the latest issues in global trade including:

• Trade and COVID-19 :  Since the onset of the pandemic, the WB has advised governments on best practices to keep trade flowing, particularly for goods necessary to address urgent health needs. The WB provides analysis on emerging trends in trade of services and goods, including food and vaccines, that have been affected by the pandemic. It launched a monthly (now quarterly) COVID-19  Trade Watch , which provides up-to-date data on trade in goods and services and shipping from an array of sources, along with analysis of recent trends. Recent reports include, “ Reshaping Global Value Chains in Light of COVID-19, ” which showed the essential role that value chains played in driving a recovery from the pandemic-induced trade collapse, and “ Trade Therapy: Deepening Cooperation to Strengthen Pandemic Defenses .”
• Distributional Impacts of Trade :  Global trade is crucial in driving economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic, ensuring the flow of food, medical supplies, and vaccines, and contributing to economic growth and poverty reduction. But policies must be in place to ensure that gains from trade are spread across regions, industries, workers, and consumers in developing countries. The  Distributional Impacts of Trade   webpage  assembles recent empirical innovations, new analytical tools, and policy responses. From there, the  Trade for All Toolkit  offers a repository of tools and data and can be used to explore the distributional impacts of trade. A WB report launched in May 2021 gives policymakers tools to ensure that gains are shared more widely. The research paper  “International Trade and Labor Markets: Evidence from the Arab Republic of Egypt”  is an example of a country application.
• Trade and Gender :  New trends in global trade—especially the rise of services, global value chains, and the digital economy—are opening important economic opportunities for women. The WB helps assess the potential impact of trade on women and develop policy responses based on the evidence. Building on new analysis and sex-disaggregated data, a recent  WB report , “ Women and Trade: The Role of Trade in Promoting Women’s Equality ,”  advances the understanding on the relationship between trade and gender equality and identifies new opportunities for women to gain from trade. The WB has also conducted a series of studies that look at the gender-specific challenges to trade facilitation, interviewing more than 6,500 traders and customs clearing agents (45 percent of whom were women) across eight countries.
• Trade and poverty :  Analytical work on the distributional impacts of trade, with a focus on: (i) welfare effects of changes in tariffs and non-tariff measures; (ii) ways that trade can affect local poverty rates and labor-market dynamics; (iii) implications of the rise in automation on welfare and potential job destruction in developing countries and job reshoring to high-income economies.

Trade and Climate Change:  Climate discussions often focus on trade as a contributor to global warming. But with the right policies to encourage cleaner production and trade in climate-friendly goods and services, trade can be part of the solution. This research explores how developing countries can expand the role of trade in adapting to and mitigating climate change.

• Deep Trade Agreements :  The number of bilateral and regional agreements has increased as multilateral trade negotiations stagnated and tensions between major trading partners rose. There are over 300 agreements today, up from 50 in 1990. Many of these agreements extend well beyond tariffs and aim for deeper integration of policies such as those on investment and intellectual property protection. This research provides new analysis on the determinants of such deep trade agreements, how they affect trade and non-trade outcomes, and how they might shape trade relations in a post-COVID-19 world. An e-book launched in July 2021 on the  Economics of Deep Trade Agreements  builds on a  novel database  developed by the WB.
• Logistics and connectivity :  The biennial Logistics Performance Index (LPI) measures the logistics “friendliness" of 160 countries based on a worldwide survey of freight forwarders and express carriers. The LPI has grown into a widely used and influential global index.

Policy and reform support: 

Trade Policy and Performance:  Analysis and policy advice to help countries compete globally. In Mauritius, the WB has advised on skills formation, labor-market policy, exchange-rate management, and state support, and it has analyzed a list of products that have favorable tariff treatment in China, India, and Africa. Mauritius uses this advice as a central element of its strategy to upgrade exports, and its Economic Development Board will use the products on the list as a basis for discussions with potential exporters and investors.

Trade Facilitation and Logistics :  Strengthening trade corridors, supply chains, and trade logistics; modernizing border management; enhancing connectivity between firms, markets, and consumers; and Lending and Technical Assistance:

• Excessive bureaucracy and paperwork, cumbersome port and customs handling procedures, and transport bottlenecks are major barriers to trade in developing countries, especially sub-Saharan Africa. A one-day reduction in inland travel times brings a 7 percent increase in exports in Africa. A one-day reduction in delay at border increases trade by 1 percent. But improving trade facilitation requires cooperation and capacity, including improvements to trade-related infrastructure and technical assistance for customs. The WB is a major provider of trade facilitation assistance with a current portfolio over $7 billion across more than 70 countries.
• The World Bank helped the governments of Guatemala and Honduras, the Secretariat of Economic Integration in Central America (SIECA), and the private sector develop a comprehensive solution to address trade bottlenecks at the border between the two countries. As a result, the countries piloted a customs union that allowed them to integrate their trade procedures and remove duplicative processes. That cut transit times from 10 hours to just 15 minutes, increasing trade by an estimated 7 percent. 

Regional integration :  The WB supports global and regional integration, including negotiations on free trade agreement and World Trade Organization accession and participation.

• The WB is supporting the African Union in the creation of the AfCFTA,  which has the potential to boost intra-regional trade and significantly reduce poverty. We are assessing the effects of tariff reductions on government revenues and quantifying the impact on trade, growth, and poverty, and on women and youth. During the “Colombia Internationalization Mission” the WB helped the country deepen its integration in global markets and better use trade as an engine of growth.

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• Policy Professor’s New Book Explores the Impact of Trade Fragmentation on Global Stability

School of Public Policy Research Professor  Uri Dadush examines the global trade landscape in his new  book , “Geopolitics, Trade Blocs, and the Fragmentation of World Commerce.” Dadush documents the risk of a fragmenting trading system and outlines the perilous consequences for economic welfare, the fight against climate change and, most ominously, for global security. Trade rules are flouted even as globalization continues, propelled by technology, markets and rising global incomes, requiring, on the contrary, better and more enforceable rules. “Trade fragmentation is like an avalanche – it is building but has only just started, and it’s not too late to stop it,” Dadush emphasizes.

The intensifying U.S.-China rivalry, though largely about geopolitical dominance, is a core cause of trade fragmentation. The escalation forces smaller countries to adopt policies that are out of line with their own economic interests. “History tells us that trade tensions can be the harbinger of, and the pretext for, real wars,” cautions Dadush.

History tells us that trade tensions can be the harbinger of, and the pretext for, real wars. Uri Dadush

To address these challenges, Dadush argues that a strategic accommodation between the U.S. and China is a necessary condition—an imperative in the age of nuclear weapons. He emphasizes that a trade deal between the world’s two largest economies is possible because they remain vitally interested in trade, including with each other. Also needed is more attention to the social rifts associated with globalization and automation. Reforms to the World Trade Organization (WTO) must modernize its rules on subsidies and state-owned enterprises and accommodate climate-related measures while minimizing their trade distortive effects. 

Established technologies, like automation and information and communications technology, along with emerging ones such as artificial intelligence, will continue to propel and reshape global trade. However, Dadush warns that they are also likely to deepen inequality and make political compromise more difficult. Nations need a welfare system that mitigates the effects of technological shifts and of trade with lower-wage competitors. “Rich nations that have established an advanced welfare state and robust safety nets appear to be more resistant to populism, and to protectionist and isolationist pressures,” explains Dadush. “Developing countries cannot afford an advanced welfare state, but they can grow rapidly if they meet certain basic conditions of governance, and this helps sustain their cohesion and engagement with the world.”

Dadush argues that while preferential free trade agreements offer the promise of stability among the parties, they cannot replace multilateral rules, especially against a background of great power rivalry. “Without multilateral rules, preferential agreements can easily turn hostile to each other and become less cohesive internally,” shares Dadush.

As the global trade environment becomes more fragmented, Dadush’s book, endorsed by several trade experts and prominent policymakers, offers guidance that could prove critical in navigating the complexities ahead.

• Center for Intl. & Security Studies at Maryland
• International Policy
• [email protected]
• (301) 405-4390

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Deconstructing global trade: the role of geopolitical alignment

• Data behind the graphs

Globalisation is threatened as countries impose trade restrictions, especially against trading partners with large geopolitical differences. This feature gauges the impact of this development on trade flows using granular bilateral trade data across finely disaggregated sectors. We find that geopolitical distance – based on country votes at the United Nations – helps explain recent trade dynamics. The impact is sizeable: over 2017–23, we estimate that quarter-on-quarter trade volumes grew around 2.5% more slowly for geopolitically distant countries relative to those that were closer. We also assess how vulnerable individual countries are to an intensification of geopolitical tensions. 1

JEL classification: F13, F14, F15, F51, F60.

The slowdown in global trade, which intensified following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has highlighted threats to globalisation. Since the end of the Second World War, the global economy has become increasingly integrated, with trade playing a central role. Increasing integration has been an engine of economic growth, allowing countries to specialise in the goods and services in which they have a comparative advantage. However, rising geopolitical tensions have fuelled concerns about a possible retreat from globalisation, sometimes called "deglobalisation". As an illustration, a popular measure of geopolitical risk based on press articles displays a noticeable spike around the time of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and has remained elevated thereafter ( Graph 1.A ). Meanwhile, the total value of global trade as a share of global GDP peaked soon after the invasion and has declined since ( Graph 1.B ).

In this special feature, we examine the relationship between geopolitics and trade flows. Specifically, we measure the geopolitical alignment between countries based on the degree to which they vote similarly at the United Nations (UN) and investigate how this is related to their trade dynamics between 2017 and 2023. Moreover, we assess individual countries' vulnerability in terms of imports and exports to any escalation in geopolitical tensions.

Key takeaways

• Geopolitical alignment influences trade volumes: we estimate that between 2017 and 2023 the quarter-on-quarter change in trade volumes was 2.5% lower on average between geopolitically distant countries relative to those that were closer.
• By contrast, the sensitivity of trade prices to geopolitical alignment was limited overall.
• Managing trade risks from geopolitics is challenging: the countries most reliant on geopolitically distant trading partners tend to have limited alternatives for diversion.

We focus on trade data, comprising prices and volumes, for narrowly defined sectors across many country pairs. Compared with simply looking at country-level trade value data, as is common in other work, our "looking under the hood" approach has several advantages. First, it helps us to control for other factors that also shape international trade, such as the strength of supply and demand within individual sectors in different economies. Second, it allows us to break down the impact of geopolitics on trade into its effect on volumes and prices. Third, it allows for a heterogeneous impact of geopolitics on trade flows across different sectors. And fourth, we can provide an assessment of the vulnerability of different countries to an escalation in geopolitical tensions, based on how dependent countries are on others that are geopolitically distant and the availability of alternative trading partners, at the sectoral level.

Our main takeaways are the following. First, geopolitical alignment influences the volume of trade materially. We estimate that the quarter-on-quarter trade volume grew by around 2.5% less for geopolitically distant countries relative to geopolitically close ones over the 2017–23 period, after controlling for other factors. Second, the effect of geopolitics on prices received by exporters 2 was weaker. We find that the direction of the impact was ambiguous, and the size was generally small. And third, we highlight the risks to trade posed by geopolitical flare-ups, based on the degree to which trade is concentrated on geopolitically distant countries and how difficult it is to divert trade from these trading partners. We document that the countries most reliant on geopolitically distant trading partners tend to have more limited alternatives for diversion, highlighting the challenge of managing trade risks.

While our results are broadly consistent with past studies based on alternative approaches using aggregate data (Blanga-Gubbay and Rubínová (2023), Campos et al (2023) and Gopinath et al (2024), for example), we also go beyond them in important ways. Extant work focuses only on the decline in the value of trade. Our approach, by contrast, allows us to go a step further and show that this decline is largely explained by a fall in trade volumes; trade prices have contributed little.

The feature proceeds as follows. In the following section, we outline the ways in which geopolitical alignment affects trade dynamics and highlight the advantages of using granular data. Next, we provide estimates of the effect of geopolitics on trade prices and trade volumes. We then explore countries' vulnerability to any further rise of geopolitical tensions, before concluding.

How does geopolitical alignment affect trade?

Geopolitical alignment can affect trade flows. This is because countries tend to have different trade policies, including tariffs, restrictions and licensing requirements, towards geopolitical allies compared with adversaries. The less geopolitically aligned two countries are, the greater the likelihood that trade barriers will be put in place, and the higher any such barriers are likely to be.

Table A1 in the annex lays out some of the channels through which trade policies can affect trade. It focuses on trade volumes, prices and the value of trade with adversaries compared with allies.

The effect of trade policies on trade volumes to adversaries is likely to be negative. Quantitative restrictions (such as quotas or export bans on geopolitical adversaries) will directly lead to this outcome. Tariffs can have a similar effect, working indirectly through prices. Additionally, these restrictions may lead to trade being rerouted through third-party countries, which reduces the direct trade volume between adversaries. 3

Further reading

• Mapping the realignment of global value chains
• Global supply chain interdependence and shock amplification - evidence from Covid lockdowns
• Global supply chain disruptions: evolution, impact, outlook

On prices received by exporters, the effect is ambiguous. On the one hand, for tariffs imposed on trade between geopolitical adversaries, exporters may cut their prices to offset part of the tariff and protect their market share, with the size of the cut constrained by their profit margins. 4 On the other hand, if some exporters choose to exit the market altogether, prices for the remaining exporters could rise, especially if adversaries' and allies' exports are poor substitutes for each other. Likewise for quantitative restrictions: prices from adversaries are likely to rise due to their relative scarcity.

Complicating matters, the expectation of restrictions is likely to see adversaries move trade forward to avoid the constraints. This would increase trade volumes (compared with trade between allies) temporarily. The impact on prices, however, could go either way: if importers react more strongly, their increased demand is likely to see prices rise, whereas if exporters do, their increased supply can see prices fall.

Taking all these channels together, geopolitical factors are likely to see a decline in trade volumes between adversaries compared with allies, with the possible exception of a temporary bump before the implementation of anticipated measures. For prices, the effect of geopolitics could go in either direction.

We turn to assessing the impact of geopolitics on trade dynamics in recent years. We make use of bilateral trade data at the sectoral level. Our primary data source is the six-digit Harmonized System (HS) of bilateral trade data from the UN Comtrade data set. The data include bilateral export volumes and values (measured in US dollars) for around 5,000 sectors at monthly frequency. Following Amiti et al (2024a,b), we aggregate the data from monthly to quarterly frequency to reduce their volatility. We then compute prices as the ratio of values to volumes. We focus on a sample of 32 economies. These are the top 50 trading countries (ranked by total trade value) with data available every year from 2017 to 2023. 5   This unfortunately excludes Russia and Korea, among others, due to incomplete data. That said, it still captures any indirect effects working through third-party countries.

We measure geopolitical alignment between trading partners based on UN voting records. We rely on a distance metric proposed by Bailey et al (2017) that is often used in the literature as a proxy for geopolitical distance. Based on observed votes, they estimate a time-varying annual measure of each country's political preferences, referred to as its "ideal point". They then calculate the "geopolitical distance" between each pair of countries as the distance between their ideal points ( Graph 2 ). The larger the distance, the less aligned the two countries are. Based on this approach, country pairs, say, within the European Union are generally very close to each other. Conversely, the United States and China both tend to be geopolitically distant from many of the other countries in our sample. 6

Event study: trade dynamics after the Russian invasion of Ukraine

We can get a glimpse of the role of geopolitical alignment on trade using an event study centred around the time of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. To do so, we compare changes in trade growth between countries that were more geopolitically aligned with those that were less so. If geopolitical distance did not affect trade flows, we would expect to see similar trade changes regardless of geopolitical alignment.

We label country pairs "allies" or "adversaries" based on their geopolitical alignment. Allies are country pairs whose geopolitical distance is below the 25th percentile in our sample each year, while adversaries are those above the 75th percentile. See Graph A1 in the annex for our classification of country pairs.

A simple comparison suggests that some trade flows between adversaries were diverted to allies. We calculate the change in the average quarterly growth rate of trade from the four quarters before the invasion to the four quarters that follow. The value of trade calculated this way declined for both groups, but more so for adversaries ( Graph 3.A ).

Beyond trade values, geopolitical factors seem to play out differently for trade volumes and prices. We observe a significant decline in the average quarter-on-quarter growth rate of trade volumes between adversaries, of more than 6%; for allies, by contrast, volumes picked up by 2% ( Graph 3.B ). Conversely, we see a decrease in the average quarterly growth rate of prices between allies to the tune of 3%, but no material change between adversaries ( Graph 3.C ). This highlights the importance of analysing trade prices and volumes separately: focusing on trade values alone will miss potentially distinct dynamics of volumes and prices.

The impact of geopolitical factors also differs across sectors ( Graph 4 ). When zooming into the bilateral trade reconfiguration for individual sectors, the outcomes are very diverse. Take the change of trade value growth, for example: the gap between allies and adversaries, not controlling for any confounding factors, varies between –70% and +60%. Thus, some sectors saw very large increases in trade between geopolitical allies compared with adversaries, while others saw the opposite.

The exercise above provides suggestive evidence of the effects of geopolitics on trade dynamics but could be misleading if factors other than geopolitics influenced trade patterns. For example, a slowdown in an economy that is geopolitically distant from most other countries could lead trade flows between adversaries to decline, independent of geopolitics. Further, trade patterns may have been distorted by the Covid-19 pandemic and its aftermath. We therefore now move to a more comprehensive model that does a better job of controlling for confounding factors.

Quantifying the impact of geopolitical distance on trade

To quantify the impact of geopolitics on trade, we estimate an equation that explains trade dynamics using geopolitical distance and other factors. We model the growth rate of bilateral trade volumes and prices for each of nearly 5,000 narrowly defined sectors, based on the geopolitical distance between trading partners as well as supply from exporters and demand from importers. We then aggregate these effects across sectors, based on trade shares, to calculate the overall impact of the factors on bilateral trade.

Specifically, we assume that trade between a country pair, for a given sector and time period, can be explained by:

where the dependent variable i is the quarter-over-quarter percentage change in volume (V) or log change in price (P) from country i to country j for sector h in quarter t.

Coefficients α hjt and β hit are fixed effects for importers and exporters respectively. Including these in the regression is crucial to control for the effects of demand from importers and supply from exporters. Intuitively, we assume that a change in trade that is common across all exporting countries to a given importing country j is related to the demand of the importing country and will be captured by α hjt . Likewise, we assume that a change that is common across all importing countries from a given exporting country i is related to the supply of the exporting country and will be captured by β hit . Using these fixed effects to capture supply and demand influences follows the recent work of Amiti et al (2024a,b). 7

The crucial coefficient for us is θ ht – the coefficient on the geopolitical distance between trading partners D ijt . It provides an estimate of the effect of geopolitical distance on trade (volumes or prices). If countries shift trade from geopolitically distant countries to geopolitically close ones in a given period, we will see a negative θ for trade volumes. If the shift plays out over time, θ will remain in negative territory in subsequent periods as well. Similarly for prices: if exporters start to charge more to adversaries than allies, θ will be positive, and will remain positive over time if the gap continues to widen.

Our approach complements the existing literature. Much of the extant work relates trade to the size of the trading partners' economies and the geographical distance between them – the so-called gravity model – augmented by adding geopolitical distance measured in a similar way to us (eg Campos et al (2023), Cevik (2023), Gopinath et al (2024) and Hakobyan et al (2023)). Ours differs from that analysis in three ways. First, we focus on trade prices and volumes separately, instead of trade values. Second, we explicitly control for separate supply and demand influences at the sectoral level (instead of proxying supply and demand factors at the aggregate level using trading partners' GDP). Third, we analyse growth rates instead of trade levels to filter out the impact of time-invariant confounding factors such as geographical distance and cultural similarity.

Consistent with our discussion on conceptual drivers above, the impact of geopolitical distance on trade volume growth is generally negative: for the typical sector, the estimated θ associated with trade volume growth is below zero in nearly all periods ( Graph 5.A , red line). 8  Given the setup of our regression, this continual negative effect implies that the gap in trade volumes between geopolitically close and distant trading partners widened continuously over the length of our sample. 9

The impact seems to be larger when trade policy uncertainty or geopolitical tensions are elevated. For example, the largest impact (in 2018) coincides with heightened trade policy uncertainty as US-China trade tensions flared. This is consistent with Jakubik and Ruta (2023), who find a shift from trading between adversaries to allies that is concentrated in uncertain times, as firms took precautionary actions given the unpredictable policy outlook. The effect remained negative, but less so, in subsequent years, especially during the Covid-19 crisis, but then grew again when geopolitical tensions surged after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Somewhat surprisingly, the effect following the invasion is smaller than in 2018. This probably reflects the fact that trade reconfiguration due to geopolitical factors was already well under way before then.

Overall, the impact of geopolitical distance on trade volume growth is sizeable. Throughout our sample, geopolitical factors dragged down the quarter-on-quarter growth rate of trade volumes among adversaries by around 2.5% relative to that among allies, on average ( Graph 5.B , diamonds). After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the implied gap widened to about –4%.

So what do we gain by controlling for demand and supply factors? If we did not, then we would just be comparing trade volumes between allies and adversaries. And that could lead us to very different conclusions. In fact, instead of an average effect of geopolitics of –2.5%, we would get +1.5% ( Graph 5.B , bars). Over much of our sample, robust supply from China and/or strong demand from the United States were important contributors to global trade volume growth. To the extent that the growth was common across trading partners, our approach attributes this to supply and/or demand rather than geopolitics. Thus, given that both China and the United States are geopolitically far from many of their trading partners, if we did not control for supply and demand, it would materially distort our estimates of the effects of geopolitics.

The impact of geopolitical distance on export prices, in contrast, to that on trade volumes, has been smaller and has tended to fluctuate around zero ( Graph 5.A , blue line). This partly reflects the ambiguous nature of the impact that trade barriers have on prices, as discussed previously. One episode that stands out is 2018, when trade prices among adversaries relative to allies increased. That would be consistent with a dominant effect from exporters exiting markets due to either tariffs making trade unprofitable or the imposition of quantitative restrictions.

Other studies that have addressed similar questions report an annualised difference in the value of trade between geopolitical allies and adversaries in the range of 4% to 22%. 10  Our estimate, of around 10% annualised, is close to the middle of this range. But our methodology allows us to further decompose the change in the value and show that this is mostly explained by a change in trade volumes; trade prices, however, remained relatively static, demonstrating the benefits of our approach.

Risks to trade from geopolitical tensions

Our results highlight the potential risks that geopolitical tensions pose for trade. If political tensions were to intensify, this could result in stronger trade restrictions between geopolitical adversaries. As a result, the gap in trade volume growth between allies and adversaries would probably widen further. But the effects would be spread unevenly across countries.

We use our granular data of sectoral trade flows between country pairs to construct an assessment of these risks. We view bilateral trade flows from the perspective of each of the exporter and importer countries separately and provide a sense of their vulnerability.

The risk of individual countries to geopolitical tensions varies and is related to at least two factors.

For one, it depends on the extent to which a country may have to divert its trade . For imports, countries that source more goods from adversaries are at greater risk on this score, since trade with adversaries is more likely to be subject to new barriers. Similarly for exports – countries selling more to adversaries are more vulnerable. To proxy for the need to divert trade, we calculate a "need for diversion index" as the trade value-weighted average of the geopolitical distance between a country's trading partners in terms of each of its imports and exports. 11

For another, it hinges on how easy it is for a country to divert its imports or exports to other countries. For example, if a country would like to divert its imports of a particular good, the options for doing so could be limited if suppliers are concentrated in a small number of countries, especially if those countries are geopolitical adversaries. Similarly, the ease of diverting exports would be limited if geopolitical adversaries dominate global demand. To gauge the flexibility of a country to divert trade for a given sector, we construct a measure of sectoral concentration for the sector that weights each potential trading partner by their geopolitical distance. We then aggregate these sectoral concentration measures, weighted by their trade share in imports or exports, to generate a country-level "impediment to diversion index". 12

In interpreting our findings, some limitations must be borne in mind. For example, we have focused on risks associated with the composition of trade; for economies less dependent on trade, the macroeconomic costs of reductions in trade volumes will be smaller. In addition, the ease of substitutability may be poorly approximated by actual concentration at any given point in time, especially if infrastructure is essential to trade (eg pipelines for natural gas). Similarly, the criticality of a product for a country's economy is not considered.

For a given country, the risks to exports and imports will vary because of differing sectoral composition of trade flows and geopolitical distances to trading partners.

We assess individual countries' risk along these two dimensions, for exports ( Graph 6.A ) and imports ( Graph 6.B ) separately, using 2023 data. On the horizontal axis is our proxy for the need to divert trade, and on the vertical axis how difficult it is to do so. Countries further from the origin are those particularly at risk from further trade tension escalation.

European countries in our sample appear to have the lowest risk for both exports and imports. First, they are geopolitically close to their major trading partners, with around 70% of their exports and imports being with other European countries, 13 and second, they do not have a high share of sectors in which trade is dominated by their adversaries. The resilience partly reflects European countries' efforts to reorient their imports of strategic sectors and exports towards allies following Russia's invasion of Ukraine (Bosone et al (2024)). These countries would have been more vulnerable before 2023, considering their heavy reliance on Russia for energy imports. 14

That said, our measures are limited by our data: a calculation of their resilience before 2022 would have understated the risks they faced, given the absence of Russia from our sample.

From the perspective of exports, a few countries are at notably higher risk than others. China and Mexico stand out based on the need to divert. This partly reflects the fact that, in both cases, their largest trading partner is the United States – a geopolitically distant country based on UN voting records. They both face a high "impediment to divert" as well, given that, in many of the sectors in which they export, geopolitically non-aligned countries are prominent importers. Australia is also vulnerable: while it is less geopolitically distant from its trading partners on average, some of its exports are in markets where geopolitical adversaries are outsize importers. In particular, Australia's largest export by value is iron ore, most of which is sold to China, the world's largest importer and a geopolitical adversary.

For imports, China, Mexico and the United States appear to be at the most risk. All three countries are heavily dependent on imports from countries that are geopolitically distant. Moreover, their adversaries dominate the global supply of imported goods across many sectors, limiting the potential to divert. For example, for China, the United States, Canada and Norway are all adversaries that play a significant role in supplying liquefied petroleum gases, a critical commodity.

Managing trade risks from geopolitical tensions is likely to be challenging. For both imports and exports, there is a statistically significant positive correlation between the need for diversion and the impediment to diversion ( Graph 6 , dashed line). This suggests that countries that are the most reliant on geopolitically distant trading partners have limited options to find alternative countries to trade with.

The risks discussed above can be mitigated in at least two ways, but with costs and limitations.

First, firms could seek to "de-risk" by reshoring – increasing reliance on domestic production, or friendshoring – sourcing from allies instead of adversaries (Cerdeiro et al (2024)). 15  However, such a process is likely to take time. In addition, reshoring or friendshoring are likely to imply welfare losses due to less efficient use of labour and capital than under free trade. For example, Javorcik et al (2024) estimate that friendshoring may lead to losses to countries' real GDP of as much as 4.7%. Moreover, in some cases sourcing from alternative suppliers is not possible, as when trade patterns are driven by the availability of natural resources, for example trade in rare earths, lithium and uranium.

A second option could be for countries to adjust their political alignment. While we have taken geopolitical distances as a given in our analysis, high economic costs of diversion could incentivise a change in political choices of allies and adversaries. Kleinman et al (2020) finds that, as countries depend more on a trade partner, they tend to realign politically towards them. However, this process tends to play out only slowly, over decades.

Will some countries be able to benefit from trade reconfiguration due to geopolitics? It is possible that friendshoring may deliver a boon to certain countries' exports. Mexico and Vietnam, for instance, appear to have benefitted from US-China trade tensions. However, to the extent that the increase in their exports largely reflects the re-routing of existing trade, the real gains may be limited since the value added would be small. And the net benefits of trade diversion would be tempered by weaker demand from countries whose growth is adversely affected (Cerdeiro et al (2024)).

Our analysis suggests that global trade has become increasingly fragmented in recent years due to geopolitical tensions. We find evidence that countries that are more geopolitically distant tend to trade less with each other, all else equal. The risk this poses to individual countries varies: countries whose growth depends heavily on trade with geopolitical adversaries are especially vulnerable. This is not only because they face a greater need to divert their trade from current trading partners, but also because they may have more limited options to do so.

Going beyond the analysis in this feature, trade fragmentation is just one aspect of a more general pattern of international economic interactions being increasingly shaped by geopolitical considerations, sometimes referred to as "geoeconomic fragmentation" (Aiyar et al (2023)). In addition to trade, developments in investment and technology are also fragmenting. IMF (2023) shows that FDI flows are increasingly concentrated in geopolitically aligned countries, leaving some emerging market and developing economies especially vulnerable to capital relocation.

Geoeconomic fragmentation has implications for economic welfare. When geopolitical factors play a stronger role in economic decisions, this comes at the cost of a smaller role for comparative advantage and market efficiency. While some countries may come out winners from these changes individually, the world as a whole suffers as the gains from economic integration dwindle.

Aiyar, S, J Chen, C Ebeke, R Garcia-Saltos, T Gudmundsson, A Ilyina, A Kangur, T Kunaratskul, S Rodriguez, M Ruta, T Schulze, G Soderberg and J Trevino (2023): "Geo-economic fragmentation and the future of multilateralism", IMF Staff Discussion Note , no 1.

Amiti, M, O Itskhoki and D Weinstein (2024a): "Global supply chains and US import price inflation", Liberty Street Economics , 4 March.

--- (2024b): "What drives US import price inflation?", AEA Papers and Proceedings , vol 114, May, pp 106–11.

Bailey, M, A Strezhnev and E Voeten (2017): "Estimating dynamic state preferences from United Nations voting data",  Journal of Conflict Resolution , vol 61, no 2, pp 430–56.

Blanga-Gubbay, M and S Rubínová (2023): "Is the global economy fragmenting?", WTO Staff Working Paper , no ERSD-2023-10.

BIS (2024): " China as a disinflationary force ", Annual Economic Report 2024 , pp 6–7.

Bosone, C, E Dautović, M Fidora and G Stamato (2024): "How geopolitics is changing trade", ECB Economic Bulletin , issue 2, Box 2.

Caldara, D and M Iacoviello (2022): "Measuring geopolitical risk", American Economic Review , vol 112, issue 4, pp 1194–225.

Campos, R, J Estefanía-Flores, D Furceri and J Timini (2023): "Geopolitical fragmentation and trade", Journal of Comparative Economics , vol 51, no 4, pp 1289–315.

Cerdeiro, D, P Kamali, S Kothari and D Muir (2024): "The price of de-risking: reshoring, friend-shoring, and quality downgrading", IMF Working Papers, no 122.

Cevik, S (2023): "Long live globalization: geopolitical shocks and international trade", IMF Working Papers , no 2023/225.

Gopinath, G, P Gourinchas, A Presbitero and P Topalova (2024): "Changing global linkages: a new cold war?", IMF Working Papers , no 2024/76.

Hakobyan, S, S Meleshchuk and R Zymek (2023): "Divided we fall: differential exposure to geopolitical fragmentation in trade", IMF Working Papers , no 2023/270.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) (2023): "Geoeconomic fragmentation and foreign direct investment", World Economic Outlook , Chapter 4, pp 91–114

Jakubik, A and M Ruta (2023): "Trading with friends in uncertain times", Journal of Policy Modeling , vol 45, pp 768–80.

Javorcik, B, L Kitzmueller, H Schweiger and M Yıldırım (2024): "Economic costs of friendshoring", The World Economy , vol 47, no 7, pp 2871–908.

Jiao, Y, Z Liu, Z Tian and X Wang (2022): "The impacts of the US trade war on Chinese exporters", Review of Economics and Statistics , pp 1–34.

Kleinman, B, E Liu and S Redding (2020): "International friends and enemies," NBER Working Paper , no 27587.

Qiu, H, H S Shin and L Zhang (2023): " Mapping the realignment of global value chains ", BIS Bulletin , no 78, October.

Measuring risks to trade from geopolitical tensions

This annex describes two indices to measure the risk of a country's trade due to geopolitics. These can be applied to a country's exports and imports separately, to get a sense of the riskiness of each. For illustration, we focus on the risk to a country's exports.

The first index, N i , is the need for trade diversion of country i. This is the weighted sum across all sectors (h) and all exporting partners (j) of their geopolitical distance (D ij ), where the weights are shares of the total value of country i's exports:

The second index, I i , is the impediment to diversion for country i. This is a measure of the concentration of trade across importing countries by sector, but where the contribution of each country j's trade to the index is weighted by its geopolitical distance to country i.

To construct I i , each of these is weighted by the geopolitical distance between the two countries (D ij ), with this sum then aggregated to the country level based on sector h's share of country i's total exports:

1  We thank Ryan Banerjee, Claudio Borio, Julián Caballero, Gaston Gelos, Tirupam Goel, Marco Lombardi, Benoît Mojon, Frank Packer, Goetz von Peter, Andreas Schrimpf, Hyun Song Shin and Philip Wooldridge for helpful comments and suggestions. We are also grateful to Luca Iavarone, Berenice Martínez and Jimmy Shek for excellent research assistance. The views expressed are ours and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank for International Settlements.

2  Commonly called "free on board" prices, excluding any levied tariffs.

3  Qiu et al (2023) documented the lengthening of supply chains on the back of re-routing of trade through third-party countries.

4  For example, Jiao et al (2022) find that US tariffs in 2018 had little effect on the free-on-board price of China's exports due to exporters' already compressed profit margins.

5  Our country sample consists of Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Denmark, Egypt, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States.

6  The geopolitical distance data are available only until 2022. We assume that the value for 2023 is the same as for 2022 in our analysis.

7  Amiti et al (2024a,b) focus on the price of imports to the US. BIS (2024) uses the same approach to assess the effect of China's exports on imported inflation across a panel of 12 countries.

8  There is a lot of heterogeneity in the estimated θ across different sectors, with around half of them being statistically insignificant. Following Amiti et al (2024a,b), we include both significant and insignificant estimates in our analysis.

9  This is similar to the finding that the impact of geopolitical distance on foreign direct investment (FDI) has increased over the last decade (IMF (2023)).

10   Most existing results are based on comparing trade within and between different geopolitical blocs. For example, Gopinath et al (2024) found that after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, trade between hypothetical western and eastern blocs – as in our case, identified from UN voting patterns – declined by 12% more than intra-bloc trade, while Blanga-Gubbay and Rubínová (2023) observed a 4% gap. Meanwhile, Campos et al (2023) estimated that fragmentation into western, eastern and neutral blocs could see trade flows drop by 22% in their base scenario, or up to 57% in an extreme one.

11   IMF (2023) uses a metric analogous to our "need for diversion index" to measure individual countries' risk from geopolitical tensions to FDI flows.

12  Our "impediment to diversion index" requires sectoral data and has not been used before. It is a country-specific measure of sectoral concentration (similar to the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index), adjusted for geopolitical distance. See the annex for details.

13  This, of course, means that the level of aggregation matters. For instance, if we treated the European Union or euro area as a single entity, their vulnerability would look higher.

14  Note that our calculation of their resilience before 2022 would have further understated the risks most European countries faced given the absence of Russia from our sample.

15  Re-routing trade via third countries can also help to circumvent trade barriers, but this option could trigger further trade restrictions, the more so if it becomes popular.

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40+ Best International Relations Research Topics: Global Dynamics Unveiled

• Post author By admin
• November 11, 2023

Explore the complex landscape of global affairs with our curated list of International Relations Research Topics. Delve into pressing issues, emerging trends, and fresh perspectives that shape the world stage.

Uncover the latest insights and navigate the intricacies of international diplomacy through innovative research avenues.

Embarking on the captivating odyssey of “International Relations Research Topics” is akin to donning the explorer’s hat in a vast, interconnected world.

As our globe tightens its bonds, the study of international relations becomes not just relevant but essential. In this article, we embark on a journey that doesn’t merely skim the surface; it delves deep into the beating heart of themes that intrigue scholars and mold the very narrative of our shared global drama.

Imagine traversing the echoes of historical events, resonating through the grand halls of diplomacy. Picture grappling with the contemporary puzzles that carve the geopolitical landscape, and unraveling the theoretical frameworks that scaffold our comprehension of international relations.

From the intricate dance of negotiation to the mosaic of global governance complexities, we’re set to embark on a thrilling adventure, spanning disciplines, cultures, and the sands of time.

So, fasten your seatbelts as we navigate the twists and turns of international relations research. Join us in dissecting real-world challenges through illuminating case studies and peering into the crystal ball of future trends that will shape the diplomatic stage.

The realm of international relations research isn’t just a scholarly pursuit; it’s a journey into the heart of human interaction on the international stage, a quest that promises both revelations and solutions.

Get ready for an expedition that transcends borders and plunges into the pulse of our shared global destiny.

Together, let’s unravel the dynamic and ever-evolving world of international relations research—a journey that promises not just academic enlightenment but a deeper understanding of the threads that weave our world together.

Table of Contents

International Relations Research Topics

Check out international relations research topics:-

Theories of International Relations

Power Dynamics Unveiled : Investigate the role of power in international relations and how realist perspectives shape foreign policy.

The Promise of Cooperation : Explore the principles of liberalism and how they influence diplomatic collaboration and international organizations.

Constructivism

Beyond Structures : Delve into the impact of ideas, norms, and identities on international relations, challenging traditional structural perspectives.

Critical Theories

Deconstructing Narratives : Examine critical approaches to IR, questioning established norms and advocating for social justice in global relations.

Foreign Policy

The united states’ foreign policy.

Evolution and Trends : Analyze the historical shifts and current trends in U.S. foreign policy, exploring its global implications.

China’s Foreign Policy

Rising Dragon : Investigate China’s geopolitical strategy, economic diplomacy, and its role in shaping international relations.

Russia’s Foreign Policy

Eurasian Ambitions : Explore Russia’s geopolitical objectives, alliances, and its impact on regional and global stability.

The European Union’s Foreign Policy

Unity in Diversity : Assess the coherence and challenges of the EU’s foreign policy, considering its unique supranational structure.

The Foreign Policy of the Middle East

Navigating Complexity : Examine the intricate foreign policies of Middle Eastern nations, addressing regional conflicts and global interactions.

International Law

The role of international law in the international system.

Legal Frameworks : Investigate the impact and effectiveness of international legal systems in governing state behavior.

The Sources of International Law

Foundations Unveiled : Explore the historical and contemporary sources influencing the development of international legal principles.

The Enforcement of International Law

Legal Realities : Assess the mechanisms and challenges in enforcing international law, addressing issues of compliance and accountability.

The Development of International Law

Evolutionary Trajectories : Trace the historical evolution of international law, analyzing its adaptive nature in response to global changes.

The Future of International Law

Innovations and Challenges : Speculate on the future directions and innovations in international law amidst evolving global dynamics.

International Organizations

The united nations.

Global Governance : Examine the role, challenges, and effectiveness of the United Nations in addressing global issues and conflicts.

The World Trade Organization

Trade Diplomacy : Assess the impact of the WTO on global trade dynamics, exploring its role in shaping economic relations.

The International Monetary Fund

Economic Stabilization : Investigate the IMF’s influence on global financial stability, economic development, and its role in financial crises.

The World Bank

Development Finance : Examine the World Bank’s role in funding development projects and its impact on global economic disparities.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

Collective Security : Analyze NATO’s evolving role in ensuring collective defense and maintaining regional and global security.

International Security

Nuclear weapons.

Arms Control Dilemmas : Explore the challenges of nuclear disarmament, arms control agreements, and the geopolitical implications of nuclear arsenals.

Global Threats : Investigate the causes, dynamics, and counterterrorism strategies in response to global terrorist threats.

Cyberwarfare

Virtual Battlefields : Examine the evolving landscape of cyber threats, state-sponsored cyber operations, and diplomatic responses.

Climate Change

Security Implications : Assess the security challenges posed by climate change, including resource scarcity, migration, and conflict risks.

Global Health Security : Explore the intersection of international relations and global health, focusing on pandemic preparedness and response.

International Development

The causes of poverty.

Structural Analysis : Investigate the root causes of poverty globally, examining the role of economic, social, and political factors.

The Impact of Globalization

Global Dynamics : Analyze the effects of globalization on economic, social, and political dimensions, considering both positive and negative impacts.

The Role of Aid

Humanitarian Assistance : Examine the effectiveness of international aid in promoting development, addressing crises, and reducing poverty.

The Role of Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs)

Civil Society Actors : Assess the contributions and challenges of NGOs in international development and diplomacy.

The Future of International Development

Sustainable Goals : Speculate on the future trajectories of international development, considering global challenges and innovative solutions.

International Political Economy

The global economy.

Economic Governance : Evaluate the structures and governance of the global economy, addressing issues of economic inequality and trade imbalances.

Trade Diplomacy Trends : Investigate emerging trends in global trade diplomacy, trade agreements, and their impact on national economies.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) : Examine the role of FDI in shaping international economic relations, focusing on its impact on host and home countries.

Financial Governance : Assess the role of international financial institutions and governance mechanisms in maintaining global financial stability.

Development

Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) : Explore the progress and challenges in achieving the SDGs, considering their impact on global economic relations.

International Environmental Politics

Global Responses : Evaluate international efforts to address climate change, analyzing agreements, policies, and the role of state and non-state actors.

Biodiversity

Conservation Challenges : Examine global initiatives and challenges in preserving biodiversity, considering the impact on ecosystems and human societies.

Cross-Border Impacts : Analyze international frameworks and strategies for addressing transboundary pollution, emphasizing cooperative solutions.

Water Resources

Hydro-Diplomacy : Investigate the geopolitical dimensions of water scarcity, transboundary water management, and the potential for conflict or cooperation.

Global Energy Security : Assess the geopolitics of energy resources, exploring the impact on international relations and national security.

International Human Rights

The universal declaration of human rights.

70 Years On : Reflect on the achievements and challenges in upholding the principles of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

The Role of Human Rights Organizations

Advocacy and Impact : Assess the contributions and limitations of human rights organizations in promoting and protecting human rights globally.

The Challenges of Human Rights Protection

Contemporary Dilemmas : Examine current challenges and dilemmas in the protection of human rights, considering cultural, political, and legal perspectives.

The Future of Human Rights

Emerging Harmonies : Identify and analyze emerging human rights issues globally and explore diplomatic strategies for advancing human rights advocacy worldwide.

Future Trends

Check out the future trends:-

Diplomacy in the Digital Age

Cybersecurity Adventures: In an era of technological leaps, the specter of cyber threats looms large. Future international relations will be in the trenches, figuring out the playbook for norms, treaties, and group huddles to fend off cyber villains and safeguard our digital fortresses.

Guardians of Global Wellness

Pandemic Odyssey: The seismic impact of COVID-19 sounded the alarm for robust global health governance.

Imagine this: a future where nations join hands in a symphony of collaboration, fine-tuning pandemic preparedness, orchestrating vaccine ballets, and addressing health inequalities on the grand stage of global solidarity.

Environmental Diplomacy

Climate Crusaders: Brace yourself for a climate showdown! As the world heats up, international relations will groove to the beat of urgent climate action.

Imagine a dance floor where negotiations, agreements, and collaborations bust moves to mitigate environmental threats and jive with the rhythm of a changing climate.

Regional Power Play

Shapeshifting Dynamics: A plot twist is brewing as regional powers in Asia and Africa steal the spotlight, reshaping the global stage.

The future of international relations will be a blockbuster, navigating the rise of these regional superheroes alongside the traditional titans of global influence.

Tech-Driven Humanitarianism

Aid’s Tech Symphony: When humanitarian crises strike, enter the tech virtuosos! Drones, artificial intelligence, and other tech marvels take center stage, orchestrating a symphony of innovation to respond to crises and deliver assistance with superhero efficiency.

Cosmic Diplomacy

Space Odyssey Unleashed: As we soar into the cosmos, international relations will boldly go where no treaties have gone before.

Picture diplomatic efforts navigating the vast expanse of space, establishing norms, agreements, and governance frameworks for our cosmic endeavors.

Economic Resilience Revolution:

Economic Tango Redefined: The aftermath of global economic shocks reshapes the dance floor of economic alliances and trade relationships.

Future international relations will spin into action, crafting moves to enhance economic resilience and foster cooperation in an ever-changing economic landscape.

Digital Frontier Governance:

Regulating the Digital Wild West: Get ready for a showdown in the digital saloon! The digital realm takes the spotlight in international relations, where future trends include crafting international regulations, treaties, and norms to tame the digital frontier, ensuring data privacy and the ethical use of emerging technologies.

Migration Marvels:

Demographic Jigsaw: Demographic changes and migration challenges become key players in the international relations saga.

Nations collaborate on an epic script, developing comprehensive policies that address the impacts of migration on societies, economies, and the geopolitics stage.

Multilateral Makeover

Global Governance Remix: The future sees multilateral institutions donning a new look to tackle contemporary challenges.

Efforts to reform and adapt global governance structures take center stage, promising an international relations blockbuster that shapes the world’s destiny.

What are good topics for research in international relations?

Check out some of good topics for research in international relations:-

Digital Battlegrounds: Navigating Cybersecurity Challenges in Global Diplomacy

Unraveling the influence of cyber threats on shaping diplomatic relations and the imperative for a united front in the realm of cybersecurity.

China’s Global Odyssey: Decoding the Belt and Road Initiative

Embarking on an exploration of the economic, political, and geopolitical ripple effects stemming from China’s grand infrastructure and development venture.

Angels in Conflict: Humanitarian Interventions Unveiled

Delving into the intricacies of international humanitarian interventions, weighing their effectiveness against the ethical backdrop in conflict-ridden territories.

Climate Avengers: Global Governance Confronts Climate Change

Surveying the battlefield of climate change, evaluating the triumphs and tribulations of international agreements and organizations in fostering sustainability.

Beyond Borders: The Dance of Non-State Actors in Global Affairs

Spotlighting the silent influencers – NGOs, multinational corporations, and other non-state actors – and deciphering their impact on the world stage.

Refugee Realities: An International Collaboration Saga

Unmasking the challenges and collaborative opportunities on the global stage as nations grapple with the escalating refugee crisis .

Energy Chess: Geopolitics in Resource Distribution

Tracing the geopolitical moves dictated by the control and distribution of energy resources, a chess game shaping international relations.

Populism’s Echo: Global Diplomacy in the Age of Charismatic Leaders

Analyzing the crescendo of populist movements and leaders, exploring their influence on international relations, alliances, and diplomatic dynamics.

Nuclear Shadows: Proliferation Puzzles and Global Security

Assessing the shadow cast by nuclear weapons proliferation and unraveling strategies for global disarmament.

Multilateralism Unveiled: Charting the Future Course

Lifting the curtain on the role and relevance of multilateral institutions in the ever-evolving landscape of international relations, envisioning potential reforms.

Regional Harmony: Dynamics of Integration Explored

Unlocking the impact of regional organizations, like the European Union or ASEAN, on stability, economic collaboration, and political cohesion.

Soft Whispers: Cultural Influence in Global Affairs

Deciphering the art of soft power, cultural sway, and the dance of public diplomacy on the grand stage of international relations.

Trade Winds of Change: Global Commerce Post-Pandemic

Navigating the reshaped tides of global trade and supply chains in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Rights Under Fire: Human Rights Amidst Conflict

Assessing the safeguarding of human rights in the tumult of conflict zones, and exploring avenues for accountability and justice.

AI on the Frontlines: Warfare in the Age of Artificial Intelligence

Probing the ethical, legal, and strategic battlegrounds of integrating artificial intelligence into military operations and the face of warfare.

These topics now come alive with a touch of intrigue and exploration!

What topics do international relations students study?

Embarking on the adventure of international relations studies is like diving into a treasure trove of global complexities. A

s students navigate this dynamic field, they encounter a fascinating array of subjects that mirror the intricate dance of nations.

Here’s a sneak peek into the captivating topics that typically grace the desks of international relations students:

Global Political Economy

Unraveling the intricate threads of international trade, finance, and economic jamborees, exploring the rollercoaster ride of globalization, development dramas, and economic sagas.

Delving into the legal labyrinths that regulate the cosmic ballet between states, organizations, and individuals on the world stage—think treaties, human rights, and diplomatic choreography.

Security Studies

Analyzing the kaleidoscope of global security, from military acrobatics and conflict resolution gymnastics to the starring role of international organizations in the grand spectacle of peacekeeping.

Comparative Politics

Comparing political systems worldwide, a bit like political Tinder, but for countries—swipe left for autocracy, swipe right for democracy.

Diplomacy and Negotiation

Mastering the art and strategy of diplomacy—picture a chessboard where countries make their moves with diplomatic finesse, negotiating checkmates and stalemates.

Foreign Policy Analysis

Playing detective in the realm of global decision-making—think Sherlock Holmes meets geopolitics, dissecting the motives and influences behind a nation’s foreign policy.

Touring the bureaucratic wonders of global organizations like the United Nations, where policies are debated, resolutions are passed, and diplomatic handshakes abound.

Human Rights and Global Governance

Championing the cause of human rights on the world stage, a bit like the Avengers, but for justice, with discussions on global governance challenges thrown in.

Crisis Management

Learning the ABCs of handling international crises—from humanitarian dramas to political cliffhangers, because sometimes the world feels like a suspenseful blockbuster.

Area Studies

Taking a deep dive into the soul of specific regions or countries, unraveling their histories, cultures, political intrigues, and international relations soap operas.

These are just a few teasers from the thrilling curriculum that shapes international relations students into global aficionados, ready to decode the world’s greatest mysteries and challenges.

What are the main issues of international relations?

Embarking on the labyrinthine journey of international relations is like diving headfirst into a riveting saga filled with complex challenges and diplomatic intricacies. Here’s a closer look at the pulse-quickening issues that keep the global stage buzzing with anticipation:

Global Security and Conflict

Imagine the ongoing chess game of maintaining global peace, tackling conflicts, and deftly sidestepping the landmines of potential new hostilities.

Economic Inequality and Globalization

Imagine a high-stakes tightrope walk, balancing the pursuit of economic growth with the tightrope of fair wealth distribution in our interconnected, globalized world.

Climate Change and Environmental Sustainability

Feel the urgency of a call to arms against climate change, championing environmental protection, and orchestrating a symphony of international cooperation for sustainable development.

Human Rights Violations

Enter the battlefield of justice, where the quest to protect and champion human rights clashes with discrimination, persecution, and the shadows of injustice.

Global Health Challenges

Witness the epic quest against pandemics, the noble pursuit of equal healthcare, and the captivating dance where global health meets the intricate steps of international relations.

Nuclear Proliferation

Imagine delicate diplomatic waltz around the possession and potential use of nuclear weapons, involving disarming maneuvers, non-proliferation treaties, and diplomatic pirouettes.

Terrorism and Transnational Crime

Navigate the thrilling world of international intrigue where the threat of terrorism and cybercrime lurk, challenging the boundaries of nations.

Migration and Displacement

Step into the multifaceted dance of human migration, refugees seeking a new rhythm, and the drama of how these moves impact host countries and global stability.

Nationalism and Populism

Experience the resurgence of nationalist and populist movements, an unfolding drama influencing both domestic and international political stages.

Technological Advancements and Governance

Dive into the riveting tale of rapid technological advances, where cybersecurity challenges and the regulation of emerging technologies take center stage.

Public Health Crises

Respond to the urgent call of global health crises, epitomized by the dramatic plot twists of events like the COVID-19 pandemic.

Diplomatic Tensions and Alliances

Feel the diplomatic tension in the air, where alliances are forged and strained, as the geopolitical script continually rewrites itself.

These are not just global issues; they’re the characters and plotlines that make the grand narrative of international relations a thrilling and ever-evolving spectacle. Get ready for the next episode!

What are the topics of the International Relations Journal?

The International Relations Journal is like a treasure trove, unlocking the secrets of the ever-evolving world of international relations.

It’s a captivating journey through a kaleidoscope of topics, where the academic spotlight shines on:

Dive into the drama of war, the chessboard of nuclear politics, and the backstage workings of global peacekeepers.

Get tangled in the web of globalization’s impact on world economies, the intricate dance of international trade, and the role of financial bigwigs.

Embark on a legal odyssey, exploring the origins and applications of international law, dissecting treaties, and scrutinizing institutions like the International Court of Justice.

Take a cross-cultural road trip, comparing political systems, dissecting the birth and demise of democracies and autocracies, and peeking into the political economy and social policies across the globe.

International Relations Theory

Dip your toes into the sea of theories, from the hard-hitters like realism and liberalism to the avant-garde worlds of constructivism, critical theory, and postmodernism.

International History

Time-travel through historical sagas of diplomacy, the rollercoaster of war, the rise and fall of empires, and the game-changers like the Cold War, 9/11, and the transformative waves of the Arab Spring.

This isn’t just a journal; it’s a vibrant marketplace of ideas, where scholars and enthusiasts alike gather to decipher the complex symphony that is international relations.

In the captivating realm of international relations research, these topics serve as portals into the heart of our global narrative, inviting curious minds to embark on a journey through the complexities that define our interconnected world.

From the intriguing dance of technological diplomacy to the pressing challenges posed by climate change, each research avenue beckons exploration and deeper understanding.

As we navigate this intellectual landscape, the rise of artificial intelligence’s impact on global affairs, China’s ascendancy reshaping geopolitical dynamics, and the imperative for collective action on climate-related issues emerge as pivotal subjects.

These aren’t just topics; they are doorways into a world where every inquiry contributes to the ever-evolving story of our shared human experience.

The future of democracy faces crossroads, and the ethical dimensions of technology on human rights challenge us to contemplate the intersection of progress and ethical responsibility.

The multifaceted facets of international security weave a narrative that transcends borders, reminding us of our interconnected destinies.

As scholars and enthusiasts delve into these topics, the journal of international relations becomes not just a source of knowledge but a compass, guiding us through the intricate and dynamic terrain of our global society.

The landscape of international relations research is an open invitation to unravel, question, and actively participate in the ongoing dialogue that shapes our world. It’s a vibrant tapestry waiting to be explored by those curious enough to seek, understand, and contribute to the rich mosaic of our interconnected reality.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the key theoretical frameworks in international relations research.

International relations research draws on various theoretical frameworks, including realism, liberalism, and constructivism. Each offers unique perspectives on global affairs.

How does cultural diplomacy impact international relations?

Cultural diplomacy plays a crucial role in shaping international perceptions. It fosters understanding between nations and influences public opinion, contributing to soft power dynamics.

What are the pressing contemporary issues in international relations research?

Contemporary issues include geopolitical tensions, global health crises, and environmental challenges. Researchers delve into these topics to offer insights and solutions.

How does global governance contribute to international stability?

Global governance, facilitated by international organizations, contributes to stability by providing mechanisms for collaboration, conflict resolution, and the pursuit of common goals.

What role do case studies play in international relations research?

Case studies provide a practical application of theoretical frameworks to real-world scenarios. They offer nuanced insights into diplomatic challenges and successes.

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Trade and Commerce Research Resources

Below are links to databases and electronic resources that support the study of international trade and commerce and related areas of research.

MULTIDISCIPLINARY DATABASES

Databases that offer multidisciplinary coverage of trade and commerce literature from scholarly and non-scholarly sources.

• Credo Reference -- comprehensive collection of highly-specialized dictionaries, encyclopedias, and handbooks across all subject areas. Good place to go for succinct definitions, explanations, and analysis of concepts, theories, or topics.
• Google Scholar -- the scholarly part of the Google empire. To set up Google Scholar with access to full-text journals and databases, go here .
• JSTOR -- a multidisciplinary archive of scholarly journal articles covering most major disciplines in the social sciences and humanities. Useful for identifying historical research on a topic.
• Oxford Handbooks Online -- contains in-depth, high-level articles covering a variety of disciplines. Entries offer a thorough introduction to topics and a critical survey of the current state of scholarship, creating an original conception of the field and setting the agenda for new research.
• ProQuest Multiple -- comprehensive, multidisciplinary database of newspaper, magazine, and scholarly journal articles updated daily. Content is more focused and manageable in locating relevant research than Google Scholar .

SPECIALIZED RESEARCH RESOURCES

Key Databases

• ABI/Inform -- database that features access to full-text journals, dissertations, working papers, key business and economics magazines and trade journals as well as country-and industry-focused reports and downloadable data. Its international coverage gives researchers a complete picture of companies and business trends around the world. Covers research that examines the international trade and commerce.
• Columbia International Affairs Online [CIAO] -- provides the full text of a wide range of scholarship books, working papers from universities and research institutes, occasional papers series from NGOs, foundation-funded research projects, and proceedings from conferences.
• EconLit -- provides thorough coverage of a wide range of economics-related literature derived from journal articles, books, working papers, conference papers, and research reports. Coverage if from the 1880s to the present. This is an important source of research on economic issues related to international trade.
• Public Affairs Information Services [PAIS] -- indexes selective subjects and bibliographic access to periodicals, books, hearings, reports, gray literature, government publications, Internet resources, and other publications from 120 countries. Includes historical coverage from 1915 to the present.
• Worldwide Political Science Abstracts -- provides indexing of the international journal literature in political science and its complementary fields, including international relations, law, and public administration and policy. Over 1,700 titles are monitored for coverage and, of these, 67% are published outside of the United States.
• WTO Documents Online -- provides access to the official documentation of the World Trade Organization. The database contains over 140,000 documents in the three official languages from 1995 onwards and is updated daily. The application provides descriptive records for every document stored in the archive. It is possible to consult all of these documents online and also to download selected documents from the site. All WTO documents are posted in PDF and Microsoft Word format. A complete list of all WTO databases accessing official documents of the WTO's councils and committees is located HERE .

Related Research Resources

• Commentaries on World Trade Law Online -- an open access e-book from Brill Publishers, this is  a comprehensive, standard reference work on WTO Law.  The Commentaries  explain the provisions of the WTO Agreements article by article, setting out the interpretation of each article in the case law, in practice and in scholarly writing. The contents are extensively hyperlinked to source documents, cross-referenced and indexed.
• European Commission Trade -- web site with links to European Union trade negotiations and agreements, EU's trade agreement with the four founding Mercosur states [Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay], EU's role in the World Trade Organization, EU negotiating texts proposals and the latest round reports published since October 2015 related to the EU’s trade agreements and ongoing trade negotiations, data on trade and jobs, and trade rules enforcement on both the EU export markets and on the EU market.
• Global Trade Alert -- provides timely information on state interventions taken since November 2008 that are likely to affect foreign commerce. It includes state interventions affecting trade in goods and services, foreign investment, and labor force migration. The site focuses on trade policy monitoring and, in particular, coverage of all types of trade-discriminatory and trade liberalizing measures.
• Index of Economic Freedom -- an annual guide published by The Heritage Foundation that uses analysis of 12 quantitative and qualitative factors, grouped into four broad categories of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, government integrity, judicial effectiveness); Government Size (government spending, tax burden, fiscal health); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labor freedom, monetary freedom); and, Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). The Index currently ranks 186 countries.
• ITC Electronic Document Information System -- searchable repository for all documents filed in relation to an investigation conducted by the United States International Trade Commission. EDIS provides the capability to file documents for an investigation as well as search for documents which have already been submitted to the USITC.
• International Trade Commission -- an independent, nonpartisan, quasi-judicial federal agency that makes determinations in proceedings involving imports claimed to injure a domestic industry or violate U.S. intellectual property rights; provide independent analysis and information on tariffs, trade and competitiveness; and maintain the U.S. tariff schedule.
• International Trade Web Resources -- a comprehensive, searchable directory of online resources concerning international trade. The site contains more than 8,000 annotated and indexed links to international trade/import-export websites.
• HeinOnline Law Journal Library -- full text access to digitized content of more than 2,600 law and law-related periodicals that cover criminal justice, political science, technology, human rights, and more. Coverage for all journals is from first issue and volume through the current issue or volume for most titles.
• Mergent Intellect -- a web-based application that features an in-depth collection of worldwide business information. The database offers access to private and public U.S and international business data, industry news, facts and figures, executive contact information, the ability to access industry profiles and much more. Useful source for obtaining information about U.S and international companies involved in global trade.
• SICE: Foreign Trade Information System   -- supported by the Organization of American States, this site provides access to multilateral, free, partial preferential trade agreements, and customs unions [a trade bloc composed of a free trade area with a common external tariff]; trade policy developments and updates; national legislation, national authorities and contact points, and additional information on disciplines contained in trade agreements; and, comparative tables of trade agreements and bilateral investment treaties. 
• United Nations Commission on International Trade Law -- the core legal body of the United Nations system in the field of international trade law. Mission is to further the harmonization and modernization of the law of international trade by preparing and promoting the use and adoption of legislative and non-legislative instruments in a number of key areas of commercial law.
• United States Court of International Trade -- established under Article III of the Constitution, this court has nationwide jurisdiction over civil actions arising out of the customs and international trade laws of the United States. The court has exclusive subject matter jurisdiction of certain civil actions brought by the United States under the laws governing import transactions, as well as counterclaims, cross-claims, and third-party actions relating to actions pending in the court.

DATA AND STATISTICS--COMPREHENSIVE

• Google Dataset Search -- facilitates searching approximately 25 million datasets provided by government, public, and private groups. Users can filter results based on the type of data desired [e.g., images or text]. Data availability is based on the original source being formatted using schema.org standards, an open discovery standard for data on the web.
• National Statistical Offices -- a directory of country-specific statistical agencies maintained and updated by the United Nations Statistics Division. Also included is a list of countries and organizations which includes a brief history of the country's statistical system, legal basis, the statistical program and much more.
• UNData -- searchable statistical database provided by the United Nations Statistics Division that provides access to current statistics. The database covers a number of different areas such as employment, industry, and trade. A single interface facilitates the creation of customizable tables and the use of various filters and search options to sort and locate specific statistical information.

DATA AND STATISTICS--SPECIALIZED

• ASEANStatsDataPortal -- first launched in June 2018, this website functions as a repository for Association of Southeast Asian Nations statistical databases, including those related to trade and commerce. The Portal is currently in the public beta version, the data sources in this website are mostly from regularly updated data submitted by the ASEAN Member states, using the ASEAN Statistical Indicators.
• Design of Trade Agreements (DESTA) Database -- aims to systematically collect data on various types of preferential trade agreements. These may be customs unions, free trade agreements, or partial free trade agreements (economic integration agreements). DESTA works with a list of almost 790 agreements and includes coded design features for more than 620 agreements. These include fine-grained data with information on a large set ranging from market access commitments, flexibility instruments, enforcement tools, to non-trade issues for the time period between 1948 and 2016.
• Direction of Trade Statistics -- an International Monetary Fund database that presents the value of merchandise exports and imports disaggregated according to a country's primary trading partner. Area and global aggregates are included in the display of trade flows between major areas of the world. Reported data is supplemented by estimates whenever such data is not available or current. Imports are reported on a cost, insurance and freight basis and exports are reported on a free on board basis. The database covers all IMF member states, some non-member countries, the world, and major areas. Monthly and quarterly data are available starting in 1960; annual data are available beginning in 1947.
• FAO Detail Trade Matrix -- the trade database of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization that includes the following variables: export quantity, export value, import quantity and import value. The trade database provides data concerning all food and agricultural products imported/exported annually by all the countries in the world.
• Foreign Trade Statistics -- a U.S. Bureau of the Census statistics site that includes trade highlights, product trade data, country data, state export data, and an historical series. Coverage is from 1960 to the present. This is a good place locate detailed statistics on goods and estimates of services shipped from the United States to countries overseas.
• EuroStat -- official site of the the European Union that provides statistics at European level that enable comparisons between countries and regions. Eurostat's database is updated twice a day. Users can download individual datasets by extracting data directly from the database, by selecting our most popular tables from the homepage, by using our bulk download facility or via our web services. Trade data includes the value and quantity of goods traded between the EU Member States and goods traded by the EU Member States with non-EU countries, and, statistics on international trade in services that record services transactions between residents and non-residents.
• Information System on Integration and Trade [INt rade] -- produced by the Inter-American Development Bank, this site contains several databases that includes in-depth data on the bilateral trade of countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, both at the aggregate level and by product up to the 6 digit level of the Harmonized System; annual and quarterly bilateral trade flows in value and volume at the tariff-line level, for each country of the Americas, including transport costs, insurance fees, and duties are available for selected countries; a comprehensive set of indicators defined to assess the trade performance and analyze the trade policies of the countries of the region; and a collection of statistics and indicators for each IDB borrowing member country, providing an overview of its trade performance and trade policies.
• International Trade and Balance of Payments Statistics Portal   -- provides access to four areas of data: international merchandise trade, international trade in services, balance of payments, and trade by enterprise characteristics. Maintained by the OECD International Trade Statistics Programme, the site's mission is to compile core series on international merchandise trade that are comparable between countries, to reconcile and resolve trade asymmetries at the national level between declaring and by partner countries, and to be directly involved in better understanding and measuring globalization using international trade statistics as a core input.
• International Trade by Commodity Statistics -- a database of the OECD that includes detailed data from 1961 for imports and exports by commodity in quantity and value between OECD countries and 264 different partner countries. Products are classified according to the Standard International Trade Classification system and Harmonized System. Coverage from 2010 to the present.
• Maritime Transport Costs -- a database of statistics from the OECD used in conjunction with the paper Clarifying Trade Costs in Maritime Transport and which contains data from 1991 to the most recent available year of bilateral maritime transport costs. Transport costs are available for 43 importing countries (including EU15 countries as a custom union) from 218 countries of origin at the detailed commodity (6 digit) level of the 1988 Harmonized System. Data is available on transport costs of commodities in agriculture, crude oil, manufacturing, and raw materials.
• Trade Map -- provides in the form of tables, graphs and maps, indicators on export performance, international demand, alternative markets and competitive markets, as well as a directory of importing and exporting companies. The database covers 220 countries and territories and 5300 products of the Harmonized System. The monthly, quarterly, and yearly trade flows are available from the most aggregated level to the tariff line level.
• UN Comtrade   -- open access database providing detailed global trade data. S  erves is a repository of official trade statistics and relevant analytical tables and  contains annual trade statistics starting from 1962 and monthly trade statistics since 2010. The database also includes United Nations Trade Statistics and International Merchandise Trade Statistics by nation. An essential source of global trade data.
• UNCTADstat -- a product of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, this site provides access to comprehensive statistical time series and indicators essential for the analysis of world trade, development, and interrelated issues in the areas of finance, technology, investment and durable development. The statistical series are regularly updated and classified into easy-to-navigate themes. UNCTADstat also offers ready-to-use analytical groupings, with coverage for countries and products with a particular focus on developing and transition economies.
• WITS TradeStat Database -- developed by the World Bank in collaboration with other NGOs, this database provides the latest international merchandise and commercial services trade data and overview of country and region's imports and exports, tariff and non-tariff measures. View international trade statistics by country or region to obtain country or region's overall exports, imports and tariffs; details of exports and imports with various partner countries along with partner share and Most Favored Nation and Effective Applied Tariff tariffs imposed; details on various products exported and imported globally and with individual partner countries; and. trade indicators like number of export and import partners, trade as percentage of GDP, services exports and imports, taxes on exports, and many more indicators.
• World Bank Services Trade Restrictions Database -- aims to facilitate dialog about, and analysis of, services trade policies. The database provides comparable information on services trade policy measures for 103 countries, five sectors (telecommunications, finance, transportation, retail and professional services) and key modes of delivery.
• World Integrated Trade Solution -- provides access to international merchandise trade, tariff, and non-tariff measures data. Browse the Country profile section to obtain countries exports, imports and tariff statistics along with relevant development data. In addition, WITS provides built-in analytical tools that help assess the impact of tariff cuts. Use the Trade Outcomes module to assess competitiveness of countries by calculating and visualizing indicators. Requires registration and log in to WITS to perform custom analysis, using standard and derived product classifications. System is created and maintained by the World Bank in collaboration with the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
• WTO Data Portal -- contains statistical indicators related to WTO issues. Available time series cover merchandise trade and trade in services statistics, market access indicators (bound, applied, and preferential tariffs), non-tariff information, and other key indicators. Data retrieval functionalities include data selection, display and export, including available metadata. Maps and other graphical representations of selected data are also available.

Descriptions of resources are adapted or quoted from vendor websites

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International Economics Research Paper Topics

This page explores a diverse array of international economics research paper topics , providing students with a comprehensive list of ideas for their research projects. From trade policies to exchange rates, economic development to international financial systems, this page covers a wide range of key topics in international economics. Additionally, expert advice is offered to guide students in selecting the most suitable research topic, and essential tips are provided to assist in the process of writing an international economics research paper. To further support students, iResearchNet offers custom writing services, allowing them to order a tailored economics research paper with the assurance of top quality, expert writers, and timely delivery. Embrace the opportunity to enhance your understanding of global economic dynamics through engaging and well-crafted international economics research papers.

100 International Economics Research Paper Topics

To assist students in their quest to find compelling research paper topics in the field of international economics, we have curated a comprehensive list of diverse and engaging topics. These topics cover various aspects of international economics, providing students with a wide range of options to explore and delve into. The following categories present a collection of research topics that are both relevant and thought-provoking:

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International Trade and Policies Research Paper Topics

• The Impact of Tariffs and Trade Barriers on International Trade
• Regional Trade Agreements and their Economic Effects
• Trade Liberalization and Economic Growth: A Comparative Analysis
• The Role of International Organizations in Shaping Global Trade Policies
• Trade Imbalances: Causes, Consequences, and Potential Solutions
• Global Value Chains: Trends and Implications for International Trade
• Bilateral vs. Multilateral Trade Agreements: Comparative Analysis
• Intellectual Property Rights and International Trade
• Trade in Services: Opportunities and Challenges for Global Economies
• Trade Disputes and Resolving International Trade Conflicts

Exchange Rates and Currency Markets Research Paper Topics

• Determinants of Exchange Rates: A Comparative Analysis
• Exchange Rate Regimes: Pros and Cons
• Exchange Rate Volatility and its Impact on International Trade
• Currency Manipulation: Implications for Global Financial Stability
• Optimal Currency Areas: Theory and Practice
• The Role of Central Banks in Managing Exchange Rates
• Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Effects on Domestic Prices and Inflation
• Currency Crises and Financial Contagion
• Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency: An Empirical Study
• Exchange Rate Forecasting Models: Evaluation and Comparison

Global Financial Systems Research Paper Topics

• Financial Globalization: Opportunities and Risks
• Cross-Border Capital Flows: Implications for Emerging Economies
• International Banking and Financial Intermediation
• Financial Regulations and their Impact on Global Markets
• Sovereign Debt Crisis: Causes, Contagion, and Resolution
• Financial Innovations and their Effects on Global Financial Systems
• Financial Stability and Systemic Risk in a Globalized Economy
• International Capital Markets: Trends and Challenges
• Foreign Direct Investment and its Economic Implications
• Financial Inclusion and Economic Development in Emerging Markets

Economic Development and Globalization Research Paper Topics

• Foreign Aid and its Role in Economic Development
• Sustainable Development Goals and Global Economic Progress
• The Role of Multinational Corporations in Economic Development
• Human Capital Development and Economic Growth
• Globalization and Income Inequality: Patterns and Policy Implications
• Technology Transfer and Economic Development
• The Role of Institutions in Promoting Economic Development
• Infrastructure Investment and Economic Development
• Gender Equality and Economic Empowerment in Developing Countries
• Migration and its Impact on Economic Development

International Financial Crises Research Paper Topics

• Causes and Consequences of the Global Financial Crisis
• Financial Contagion: Spillover Effects of Financial Crises
• International Financial Institutions and Crisis Management
• The Role of Government Policies in Preventing and Managing Financial Crises
• Currency Crises: Lessons from Historical Events
• Banking Sector Stability and Crisis Resilience
• Financial Risk Management in a Globalized Economy
• Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Policies
• Early Warning Systems for Financial Crises
• Crisis Recovery and Post-Crisis Reforms: Comparative Analysis

Global Economic Governance Research Paper Topics

• The Role of G7, G20, and International Monetary Fund in Global Economic Governance
• International Economic Law and its Implications for Global Trade
• Global Economic Governance and Sustainable Development
• Regional Economic Integration and its Impact on Global Governance
• International Taxation: Challenges and Policy Implications
• Intellectual Property Rights Protection in Global Trade
• Climate Change and Global Economic Governance
• Labor Standards and Social Responsibility in International Trade
• Digital Economy and its Implications for Global Governance
• Cross-Border Data Flows: Privacy and Security Concerns

Economic Policies and Macroeconomic Management Research Paper Topics

• Fiscal Policy and its Impact on Economic Growth
• Monetary Policy Strategies in a Globalized Economy
• Exchange Rate Policy and Macroeconomic Stability
• Inflation Targeting: Theory and Practice
• Public Debt Management in the Face of Global Economic Challenges
• Financial Regulation and Macroeconomic Stability
• Unemployment Policies: Comparative Analysis and Best Practices
• Economic Integration and Policy Coordination among Nations
• Structural Reforms for Sustainable Economic Development
• Income Distribution Policies in a Global Economy

Trade and Environment Research Paper Topics

• Environmental Policies and International Trade: Conflict or Compatibility?
• Carbon Pricing and its Economic Implications for Global Trade
• Sustainable Development and International Trade
• Trade and Deforestation: Challenges and Solutions
• Green Technologies and their Role in Global Trade
• Trade-Related Intellectual Property Rights and Environmental Conservation
• Climate Change Adaptation Strategies and International Trade
• Eco-labeling and Consumer Preferences in Global Markets
• Circular Economy and its Effects on International Trade
• Trade and Water Scarcity: Nexus and Policy Responses

International Labor Markets and Migration Research Paper Topics

• Labor Mobility and Economic Integration: Implications for Global Labor Markets
• International Trade and Labor Market Outcomes
• Migration Policies and their Economic Impact
• Remittances and Economic Development in Sending Countries
• Brain Drain and Brain Gain: The Economic Effects of High-Skilled Migration
• Labor Market Flexibility and Global Competitiveness
• Gender Wage Gap in International Labor Markets
• Skilled vs. Unskilled Immigration: Economic Consequences
• Labor Market Regulations and Employment Dynamics in Global Economies
• Migration and Social Integration: Challenges and Policy Approaches

Global Economic Challenges and Future Trends Research Paper Topics

• Technological Innovations and their Effects on Global Economies
• Global Economic Inequality: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Solutions
• Aging Populations and the Economic Implications for Nations
• Digital Disruption and the Transformation of Industries
• Blockchain Technology and its Potential Applications in Global Business
• Trade Wars and their Impact on International Trade
• Economic Resilience and Crisis Preparedness in a Globalized World
• Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Labor Markets and Productivity
• Economic Implications of Pandemics and Health Crises
• Economic Forecasting and Predictive Analytics in a Global Context

This list provides an extensive array of research topics in international economics. Students are encouraged to explore these categories and select a topic that aligns with their interests, research capabilities, and the availability of relevant data and resources.

International Economics Research Paper Writing Guide

Economics is a fascinating field that encompasses a wide range of topics, and one of the key areas within economics is international economics. As countries become increasingly interconnected, the study of international economics becomes vital in understanding the complexities of global markets, trade relations, and economic policies. For students pursuing a degree in economics, writing a research paper on international economics offers an opportunity to delve deeper into these intricacies and contribute to the field’s knowledge base.

This page serves as a valuable resource for students who are tasked with writing an international economics research paper. It provides a wealth of information, including a comprehensive list of international economics research paper topics, expert advice on selecting a suitable topic, and guidance on the research and writing process. Furthermore, students can take advantage of the custom writing services offered by iResearchNet to order a tailored economics research paper that meets their unique requirements.

Whether you are interested in exploring international trade, exchange rates, economic policies, or global financial systems, this page will assist you in finding an engaging and relevant research topic. Through careful examination and analysis of these topics, students can contribute to the understanding of international economics and its implications on global economic development.

Prepare to embark on a rewarding journey of research and exploration as we delve into the realm of international economics research paper topics. Discover the intriguing dynamics of the global economy and equip yourself with the knowledge and skills to make a significant contribution in this ever-evolving field.

Choosing International Economics Research Paper Topics

Choosing a compelling and relevant research paper topic in the field of international economics is a crucial step towards producing a high-quality and impactful paper. With the multitude of available topics, it can be challenging to narrow down your focus and select a topic that is both engaging and manageable. To help you navigate this process, we offer the following expert advice on choosing international economics research paper topics:

• Identify your Interests : Start by reflecting on your personal interests within the field of international economics. Consider topics that resonate with you and align with your career goals. Engaging with a topic you are passionate about will not only make the research process more enjoyable but also enhance the quality of your work.
• Stay Updated with Current Events : Keep abreast of current global economic issues and trends. Read reputable news sources, academic journals, and policy reports to identify emerging topics or areas of debate in international economics. Analyzing and addressing these contemporary issues will add relevance and significance to your research.
• Explore Controversial Topics : Consider researching topics that have varying viewpoints or controversial aspects. These topics often spark interesting discussions and allow you to critically analyze different perspectives. However, ensure that you approach controversial topics with objectivity and rigor, presenting a balanced view in your research.
• Consult with Professors or Experts : Seek guidance from your professors or experts in the field of international economics. They can provide valuable insights, suggest research areas, or share their expertise on specific topics. Their input can help you refine your research question and provide direction for your study.
• Review Existing Literature : Conduct a thorough review of existing literature in international economics. Identify gaps or areas where further research is needed. Building upon existing knowledge or exploring new dimensions of a topic can contribute to the advancement of the field and make your research more impactful.
• Consider Data Availability : Assess the availability of relevant data for your chosen topic. Data plays a crucial role in empirical research, and access to reliable and comprehensive data sets will strengthen the empirical analysis in your paper. Ensure that you have access to suitable data sources before finalizing your research topic.
• Balance Breadth and Depth : Strive to strike a balance between the breadth and depth of your research topic. While a broad topic can provide a comprehensive overview, a narrow focus allows for a more in-depth analysis. Consider the scope of your research project, the available resources, and the time constraints when selecting the level of breadth or depth for your topic.
• Collaborate and Discuss : Engage in discussions with your peers, classmates, or fellow researchers. Brainstorming and exchanging ideas can stimulate new perspectives and inspire unique research topics. Collaborative efforts can also lead to joint research projects, enabling you to explore complex topics or conduct cross-country studies.
• Consider Policy Relevance : Evaluate the policy relevance of your chosen topic. International economics research often addresses real-world economic issues and informs policy decisions. Selecting a topic with policy implications can make your research more impactful and applicable in the context of economic development and global governance.
• Seek Feedback : Once you have narrowed down your research topic, seek feedback from your professors, peers, or research advisors. Their insights can help you refine your research question, provide additional suggestions, or highlight potential challenges in your chosen topic.

By following these expert tips, you can select a compelling and relevant research topic in international economics that aligns with your interests, contributes to the field, and enables you to produce a high-quality research paper. Remember to approach your chosen topic with curiosity, rigor, and a commitment to advancing knowledge in the field of international economics.

How to Write an International Economics Research Paper

Writing a research paper in the field of international economics requires careful planning, rigorous analysis, and effective communication of your findings. To help you navigate the process, we provide a step-by-step guide on how to write an international economics research paper:

• Understand the Assignment : Familiarize yourself with the assignment guidelines provided by your instructor. Clarify the research question, required format, citation style, and any specific requirements or expectations for your paper.
• Conduct Preliminary Research : Begin by conducting preliminary research on your chosen topic. Review relevant academic literature, empirical studies, and policy reports to gain a comprehensive understanding of the topic and identify key research gaps or areas for further investigation.
• Develop a Clear Research Question : Formulate a clear and concise research question that defines the scope of your study. Ensure that your research question is specific, measurable, and aligned with the objectives of your research.
• Create an Outline : Develop an outline that organizes your paper and outlines the structure of your research. A typical research paper structure includes an introduction, literature review, research methodology, data analysis, findings, discussion, and conclusion.
• Conduct In-Depth Literature Review : Conduct a comprehensive literature review to identify the existing knowledge and research on your topic. Analyze and synthesize the findings from previous studies, highlighting the key theories, models, and empirical evidence that are relevant to your research question.
• Choose a Suitable Research Methodology : Select an appropriate research methodology that aligns with your research question and data availability. Common research methodologies in international economics include quantitative analysis, econometric modeling, case studies, or qualitative approaches. Justify your chosen methodology and explain how it will address your research question.
• Gather and Analyze Data : Collect relevant data to support your research findings. Ensure that your data collection methods are appropriate and reliable. Conduct rigorous data analysis using appropriate statistical techniques or qualitative methods, depending on the nature of your research.
• Interpret and Present Findings : Interpret your research findings and present them in a clear and organized manner. Use tables, charts, or graphs to visually represent your data. Provide a detailed analysis and explanation of your findings, relating them back to your research question and existing literature.
• Engage in Critical Discussion : Engage in a critical discussion of your findings by analyzing their implications, limitations, and significance. Discuss any discrepancies or unexpected results and provide possible explanations. Compare your findings with previous research and highlight their contributions to the field of international economics.
• Write a Coherent Conclusion : Summarize your research findings and main arguments in a concise and coherent conclusion. Restate your research question and objectives, and discuss the implications of your findings. Suggest avenues for future research and areas where further investigation is needed.
• Revise and Edit : Proofread your research paper carefully to ensure clarity, coherence, and proper grammar. Check for consistency in formatting, citations, and references. Revise and edit your paper multiple times to improve its overall quality and coherence.
• Seek Feedback : Share your research paper with peers, professors, or research advisors to gather feedback and suggestions for improvement. Incorporate constructive feedback into your paper to strengthen your arguments and enhance its overall quality.

By following these steps, you can effectively plan, conduct, and present your research in the field of international economics. Remember to maintain a rigorous and objective approach throughout your research process and communicate your findings in a clear and concise manner. Good luck with your international economics research paper!

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ECON 580 students will want to consider what type of data may be available for topics. The Find Data tab takes you to another guide that includes links to possible data sources.

Some Places to Browse for Topic Ideas

• CBO Reports on International Trade and Finance Topcs Congressional Budget Office reports on trade topics.
• Encyclopedia of Business in Today's World Overviews of International Trade topics by business professors.
• IMF Publications by Subject Lists publications by the International Monetary Fund. Some are free online and some are not free.
• The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics Signed articles provide concise explanations of terms and theories. Bibliographies at the end of entries provide recommended reading on the topic.
• Peterson Institute for International Economics Browse working papers on economic policy.
• World Bank Trade Research "The World Bank research on trade and international integration aims to better understand the role of global economic integration in development and poverty reduction."
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• Americans, Like Many in Other Advanced Economies, Not Convinced of Trade’s Benefits
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• 1. Spotlight on views of trade in the U.S., EU and Japan
• 2. Trade widely seen as good
• 3. Advanced and emerging economies differ over trade’s impact on job creation
• 4. Nearly half of adults in emerging markets say trade raises wages
• 5. Public views on trade and prices are at odds with economic theory
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Trump could trigger a global trade war if re-elected. Shipping giant Maersk isn’t losing sleep over the prospect

Maersk's container ship Majestic Maersk, one of the world's largest container ships, is unloaded at the APM Terminals in the port of Algeciras, Spain on Jan. 20, 2023. Jon Nazca/Reuters

Tariffs are rising around the world and Donald Trump could trigger a global trade war if he is elected U.S. president in November. The world’s logistics industry knows this only too well, none more than Denmark’s AP Moller-Maersk, the world’s second-biggest container ship company.

Traffic will no doubt slow on certain trade routes if tariffs shoot up. But Maersk does not expect its 700 ships to cross oceans with shrunken cargoes if economic nationalism and “near-shoring” – businesses bringing their supply lines closer to home – gathers momentum in some countries.

In an interview with The Globe and Mail, Charles van der Steene, Maersk’s Dutch-born president of its North American division, including Canada, said today’s supply chains have shown a remarkable ability to adapt quickly to sudden trade friction driven by political factors or crises brought on by climate change or war.

In spite of jacked up tariffs in various countries, he expects Maersk’s business to expand roughly in line with the rise in global GDP this year; the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development expects unchanged growth of 3.1 per cent this year. Exports to the United States from China are down – they plunged 20 per cent, to US$427-billion, in 2023 – but those from other relatively low-cost countries, among them Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia and India, are rising.

“The global supply chain we know today has been built over many decades,” Mr. van der Steene said. “We’ll see adjustments, in some cases triggered by political motivations, but we don’t believe it will change fundamentally as a result. For example, in Asia, the ‘China Plus One’ strategy is seeing many of our customers expand their sourcing footprint to Southeast Asia.”

He was referring to the relatively new business strategy of manufacturers investing in other countries besides China to build supply chain diversification.

Maersk was founded in 1904 in Denmark, evolved into a container business in the 1970s and 1980s, and has a market value of US$23-billion. It and its big-name rivals, among them China’s COSCO and Switzerland’s Mediterranean Shipping, have used fleets of ever-bigger container ships and an expanding network of logistics hubs to turn oceans and seas into highways.

Exports from Southeast Asia are surging even as American and European tariffs crimp Chinese exports.

A September McKinsey & Co. report noted Southeast Asia’s rising role in global supply chains. Foreign direct investment in new manufacturing sites in China fell 17 per cent between 2019 and 2023; it rose 20 per cent in Southeast Asia in the same period. “Southeast Asia is emerging as a global manufacturing hub, presenting opportunities for logistics companies,” McKinsey said.

Companies everywhere are building production lines beyond China. For instance, Italy’s Pinarello, a maker of expensive carbon racing bikes, recently added a Vietnamese factory to supplement its Chinese one. The upshot for Maersk and other logistics players is whatever China takes away, Southeast Asia and India will give.

“Pure economic decision-making, with the arbitrage of labour costs and the diversification of supply chains, are forcing manufacturers to look for different ways to get their goods to the West,” Mr. van der Steene said.

Still, there is no doubt that a full-fledged trade war between the United States and China, or the U.S., the European Union and China, could cut trade on some routes. Earlier this month, Mr. Trump said that, if elected, he would impose a tariff of 100 per cent on imports from countries that move away from the dollar.

He had already promised to impose tariffs of 10 per cent to 20 per cent on all imported goods, and as high as 60 per cent on Chinese goods, as part of his America First economic agenda.

The Democrats have embraced tariffs, too. The United States, under President Joe Biden, has placed 100-per-cent tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles. Canada did the same in August. The EU has also imposed tariffs on Chinese EVs, though at far lower levels than the American and Canadian ones.

Adapting to tariffs is not the only issue at Maersk. Dealing with natural disasters and wars also requires quick strategic shifts. A severe drought dropped water levels in the Panama Canal last year and into this year, forcing ships to wait weeks to cross. In the Red Sea, attacks on shipping by Yemen’s Houthis have seen logistics companies, including Maersk, divert most or all of their traffic around the Cape of Good Hope, adding nine or 10 days to the journey between Asia and northern Europe.

Mr. van der Steene said the company has been agile in dealing with the Red Sea crisis. It boosted shipping capacity by 6 per cent to 7 per cent to make up for the longer shipping times around South Africa. It also has a fleet of 10 freighter aircraft – “We have our own airline” – that can deliver goods to any customer who needs a crucial product in a hurry.

“The network we have built up goes beyond ships,” he said. “Along with ocean terminals, it now includes trucks, planes, trains and warehouses.

“So, no, we are not really worried about tariffs going up in some countries. If there is a disruption, we can pivot quite quickly from one entry point to the other and still deliver the goods for our customers.”

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Interact with The Globe

From Natural Hazards to Global Health and Sustainability, and Finding a Community

Beginnings and a career-changing paper.

Haojie Wang 's academic journey began with a Bachelor's degree in Civil Engineering from China University of Geosciences, followed by a PhD in Civil Engineering from the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Initially, Haojie was on the path to becoming a traditional engineering geologist. However, during the second year of his PhD, a pivotal moment occurred. His advisor, Professor Limin Zhang, introduced him to a conference paper exploring unsupervised machine learning in landslide feature classification. It was a novel approach at that time, as machine learning had yet to be widely applied to understanding landslides.

"After I read that paper, I thought about the many cool scientific topics we could tackle," Haojie recalls. This moment marked the beginning of his journey into machine learning and its application to landslide research.

Upon completing his Ph.D., Haojie realized that he had developed a second identity: a data scientist with a strong foundation in geotechnics. Reflecting on the rapid evolution of the field, Haojie notes, "Years ago, no one talked about using machine learning and similar tools in this context. Traditional methods like conducting experiments and using numerical models to simulate physical processes were the norm. But today, data science is transforming the landscape of geotechnical research. The field is growing so quickly that if you don’t keep up, you risk falling behind."

Transitioning from Geotechnics to Sustainability and Global Health

Haojie’s doctoral research, Machine Learning-Powered Natural Terrain Landslide Identification and Susceptibility Assessment , focused on integrating machine learning with satellite imagery and geospatial big data to identify and forecast landslides. Multiple publications that arose from his doctoral research are recognized as highly cited papers by Clarivate. His thesis work not only advanced the field of landslide research but also allowed him to integrate his knowledge of data science and remote sensing. As he delved deeper into this field, Haojie recognized that his skillset could be applied to address more global sustainability challenges.

"New research areas mean new challenges and the opportunity to embrace new possibilities," says Haojie. "And new possibilities inspire me to stay passionate about research."

His curiosity led him to another exciting research project, this time under the guidance of Pascal Geldsetzer, Assistant Professor of Medicine. Professor Geldsetzer was seeking a data scientist with expertise in remote sensing to monitor global health indicators from space. The challenge was irresistible to Haojie.

"Finding new ways to monitor global health is truly exciting, and the project is highly interdisciplinary,” says Haojie. “I am also keen to understand the role of climate change and natural hazards in shaping today’s global health landscape," Haojie explains. With guidance from esteemed mentors such as Professors Pascal Geldsetzer, David Lobell, Marshall Burke, Stefano Ermon, Eran Bendavid, Carlos Guestrin, and Gary Darmstadt, Haojie found his intellectual homes at the Stanford School of Medicine and Stanford Data Science.

The Vision Behind Haojie Wang’s Postdoctoral Research Project

Haojie’s postdoctoral research focuses on the development of new earth observation approaches for global population health monitoring. Traditional household surveys rely on door-to-door data collection, which can only cover a small fraction of the country and is conducted at best every few years. It is time-consuming, expensive, and often logistically challenging in many parts of the world. Policymakers often have no choice but to make decisions based on extrapolated health indicators from old household surveys.

Haojie is pioneering a new approach to overcome these limitations. He is leveraging machine learning, satellite imagery—which provides continuous coverage for all countries—and publicly available geotagged big data to predict health indicators. If successful, this method could offer worldwide up-to-date health indicators more quickly than ever before, enabling governments and decision-makers to track population health, allocate medical resources more effectively, and inform healthcare policy. The project is currently in its early stages, with the development of a preliminary model underway.

The Role of Data Science in Global Health Research

Haojie’s postdoctoral work is grounded in data science, focusing on population health through a remote sensing lens. His project involves fusing and analyzing data sourced from various satellite imagery, such as Landsat, alongside other geospatial data and health records. Predictive analytics play a critical role in this research, offering new insights into health trends on a global scale.

Finding a Community at Stanford Data Science

Haojie was introduced to the Stanford Data Science Fellow Program by Professor Pascal Geldsetzer, who believed Haojie would be an ideal fit. The interdisciplinary nature of the research conducted at Stanford Data Science appealed to Haojie, who had struggled to find a community that aligned with his diverse research interests at conventional universities.

"What’s unique about Stanford Data Science is its commitment to interdisciplinary research," Haojie says. "As an interdisciplinary scientist, I often felt isolated in traditional academic environments. But here, I found a community of fellows and scholars—a huge family! It’s incredibly gratifying to know that other data scientists are also pursuing interdisciplinary research. I’m not alone on this path."

Advice for Aspiring Data Scientists

Haojie was one of the technical mentors of the Data Science for Social Good (DSSG) program in 2023, where he mentored three undergraduate DSSG fellows on the project Maternal and Child Health - A Satellite’s Perspective throughout the summer. “It was a really enjoyable and inspiring summer working with aspiring researchers. DSSG sets a solid platform to connect with young minds—I was continually impressed by their enthusiasm and how they brought fresh perspectives to our project,” Haojie gushes.

Haojie encourages aspiring data scientists to find new ways to approach problems and to view the world through a data-driven lens. "Be Brave to explore new areas. Data science allows us to tackle problems we never imagined we could address. That’s the unique charm of the field," he admits.

Ambitions, Dreams, and Hobbies

This fall, Haojie plans to apply for faculty positions in global sustainability. His goal is to continue his work at the intersection of population health, climate change, and natural hazards, using his skill set to address pressing questions and make a meaningful impact. Outside of his research, Haojie enjoys cooking, traveling, and immersing himself in nature. As an engineering geologist at heart, he finds peace and inspiration in the natural world and loves going on road trips and camping, where he can combine his passion for nature with his love of good food.

Selected Awards

• 2024 Best Paper Award, Engineering Geology, Elsevier
• Data Science Fellowship, Stanford Data Science
• Postdoctoral Fellowship, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
• National Scholarship, Chinese Ministry of Education

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• Global fine and specialty chemicals trade balance 2023, by country

China held the largest fine and specialty chemicals trade surplus in the world in 2023, signifying its status as a leading global exporter of these products, with a surplus of 27.7 billion euros. Conversely, Mexico and South Korea exhibited the most significant negative balances, with deficits amounting to 11.8 billion euros and 5.9 billion euros respectively, reflecting their reliance on imports to meet domestic demand.

Trade balance of fine and specialty chemicals worldwide in 2023, by leading country (in billion euros)

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• Global chemical industry R&D spending as a share of revenue 2021, by segment

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• Basic Statistic Global specialty chemicals revenue 2023, by country
• Basic Statistic Global specialty chemicals revenue distribution 2023, by country
• Basic Statistic China: specialty chemicals revenue 2021-2023
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• Basic Statistic Global specialty chemicals number of M&A deals 2010-2023
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• Current: IDC: Artificial Intelligence Will Contribute $19.9 Trillion to the Global Economy through 2030 and Drive 3.5% of Global GDP in 2030

Publication date: 17 Sep 2024

IDC: Artificial Intelligence Will Contribute $19.9 Trillion to the Global Economy through 2030 and Drive 3.5% of Global GDP in 2030

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